Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints45
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists4
- Andre DrummondRebounds17
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints22
- Andrew NembhardAssists8
- Aaron NesmithRebounds7
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game118–114
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime118–114
- OT2.1Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2118–114
- OT2.1Ben Sheppard enters the game for Bennedict Mathurin117–114
- OT2.1Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2117–114
- OT2.1Tyrese Haliburton personal take foul116–114
- OT3.0Caleb Martin defensive rebound116–114
- OT5.0Tyrese Haliburton misses free throw 2 of 2116–114
- OT5.0Pacers offensive team rebound116–114
- OT5.0Tyrese Haliburton misses free throw 1 of 2116–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q432.1Caleb Martin makes two point shotPHI 103 – 102 IND · PHI 29% → 66% +38PHI 29% → 66%+38 pts
- Q43.1Tyrese Haliburton makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotPHI 105 – 105 IND · IND <1% → 51% +51IND <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT4:16Tyrese Maxey makes 30-foot three point step back jumpshotPHI 108 – 105 IND · PHI 42% → 63% +21PHI 42% → 63%+21 pts
- OT3:21Tyrese Haliburton makes 26-foot three pointerPHI 110 – 110 IND · IND 34% → 57% +23IND 34% → 57%+23 pts
- OT20.1Tyrese Maxey makes 3-foot two point shotPHI 114 – 111 IND · PHI 71% → 97% +25PHI 71% → 97%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- IND -8.5
- ML PHI +280 / IND -350
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -4.5
- IND 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- IND: Elo 67.6%, market 74.7%
- Fair odds
- IND -296
- PHI +296 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 110.5 – 119.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −83 | −18 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +128 Elo | IND 67.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 64.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 74.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.6 | Points scored | 123.11st of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.5 | Points allowed | 120.327th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.0 | Margin | +2.810th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.7 | Offense rating | 118.72nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 115.924th of 30 |
| 18th of 3099.4 | Pace | 103.62nd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 12th of 3022–19 | Road vs home | 26–1510th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−83 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–2 IND in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.