Memphis Grizzlies at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points27
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Assists13
- Santi AldamaRebounds13
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints23
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists6
- Andre DrummondRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–107
- Q46.0shot clock turnover124–107
- Q431.0Jared McCain makes two point shot124–107
- Q431.1Jared McCain offensive rebound124–105
- Q435.0Jeff Dowtin Jr. misses 20-foot step back jumpshot124–105
- Q441.1Jay Huff enters the game for Jaren Jackson Jr.124–105
- Q441.1Colin Castleton enters the game for Scotty Pippen Jr.124–105
- Q441.1Scotty Pippen Jr. personal take foul124–105
- Q443.1Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jake LaRavia assists)124–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:12Eric Gordon makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jared McCain assists)MEM 26 – 31 PHI · PHI 55% → 62% +7PHI 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q25:50Jay Huff makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)MEM 41 – 45 PHI · MEM 32% → 40% +7MEM 32% → 40%+7 pts
- Q23:25Scotty Pippen Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jake LaRavia assists)MEM 48 – 51 PHI · MEM 34% → 42% +8MEM 34% → 42%+8 pts
- Q39:54Tyrese Maxey makes 23-foot three point jumperMEM 61 – 57 PHI · PHI 29% → 38% +8PHI 29% → 38%+8 pts
- Q35:36Kyle Lowry makes 26-foot three point jumper (Caleb Martin assists)MEM 74 – 66 PHI · PHI 17% → 25% +7PHI 17% → 25%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -1.5
- ML MEM -110 / PHI -110
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -0.5
- PHI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 51.9%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -100
- MEM -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 112.5 – 111.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +40 | −74 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +13 Elo | PHI 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 53.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.2 | Points scored | 107.326th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30117.8 | Points allowed | 114.517th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −7.325th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 104.928th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 112.014th of 30 |
| 4th of 30105.6 | Pace | 99.627th of 30 |
| 13th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 0–225th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−74 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MEM 1–1 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.