Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Jaden IveyPoints23
- Cade CunninghamAssists7
- Tobias HarrisRebounds14
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints32
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists7
- Andre DrummondRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–95
- Q413.1Jared McCain makes 2-foot two point shot105–95
- Q419.0shot clock turnover105–93
- Q433.0Pistons offensive team rebound105–93
- Q434.1Adem Bona blocks Tobias Harris 's 1-foot layup105–93
- Q455.2Jared McCain makes free throw 2 of 2105–93
- Q455.2Jared McCain makes free throw 1 of 2105–92
- Q455.2Jaden Ivey personal foul105–91
- Q41:00Jared McCain defensive rebound105–91
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:17Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)DET 42 – 38 PHI · DET 44% → 52% +8DET 44% → 52%+8 pts
- Q23:52Jaden Ivey makes 24-foot three point shot (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 45 – 38 PHI · DET 52% → 60% +8DET 52% → 60%+8 pts
- Q22:01Cade Cunningham makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotDET 48 – 42 PHI · DET 50% → 58% +8DET 50% → 58%+8 pts
- Q38:57Jaden Ivey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 59 – 52 PHI · DET 55% → 64% +9DET 55% → 64%+9 pts
- Q37:47Cade Cunningham makes 24-foot three pointerDET 64 – 54 PHI · DET 65% → 73% +9DET 65% → 73%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -4.5
- ML DET +150 / PHI -180
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -2.5
- PHI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 59.6%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -161
- DET +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 107.5 – 112.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1382 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | −76 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +67 Elo | PHI 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 65.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 64.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30106.5 | Points scored | 111.321st of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 117.721st of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.0 | Margin | −6.323rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30106.8 | Offense rating | 105.427th of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 111.416th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.9 | Pace | 102.313th of 30 |
| 22nd of 300–2 | Road vs home | 0–121st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−76 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–4 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.