Brooklyn Nets at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Dennis SchroderPoints33
- Dennis SchroderAssists8
- Jalen WilsonRebounds7
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points30
- Ja MorantAssists11
- Ja MorantRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–106
- Q46.1shot clock turnover119–106
- Q427.1Shake Milton defensive rebound119–106
- Q431.1Yuki Kawamura misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot119–106
- Q440.2John Konchar defensive rebound119–106
- Q444.1Noah Clowney misses 25-foot three point jumper119–106
- Q446.0Nets offensive team rebound119–106
- Q446.0John Konchar blocks Noah Clowney 's 5-foot driving layup119–106
- Q41:07Noah Clowney enters the game for Dorian Finney-Smith119–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:12Dennis Schroder makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)BKN 81 – 70 MEM · BKN 52% → 61% +10BKN 52% → 61%+10 pts
- Q34:56Ja Morant makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotBKN 83 – 81 MEM · MEM 56% → 66% +10MEM 56% → 66%+10 pts
- Q33.0Jaylen Wells makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)BKN 91 – 90 MEM · MEM 53% → 65% +12MEM 53% → 65%+12 pts
- Q410:14Dennis Schroder makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ziaire Williams assists)BKN 98 – 92 MEM · BKN 45% → 59% +13BKN 45% → 59%+13 pts
- Q49:00Dorian Finney-Smith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)BKN 101 – 93 MEM · BKN 57% → 70% +13BKN 57% → 70%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -12.5
- ML BKN +475 / MEM -800
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -4.5
- MEM 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −17.0 pts
- MEM: Elo 66.6%, market 83.6%
- Fair odds
- MEM -511
- BKN +511 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 107.0 – 119.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1412 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −67 | +25 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +120 Elo | MEM 66.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 77.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 76.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 83.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 120.34th of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.5 | Points allowed | 122.327th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−2.8 | Margin | −2.014th of 30 |
| 6th of 30114.4 | Offense rating | 112.410th of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.1 | Defense rating | 114.321st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.2 | Pace | 107.13rd of 30 |
| 24th of 300–2 | Road vs home | 1–110th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BKN 1–1 MEM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.