Chicago Bulls at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints30
- Josh GiddeyAssists8
- Josh GiddeyRebounds13
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints30
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Assists10
- Santi AldamaRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–123
- Q42.1Ayo Dosunmu defensive rebound126–123
- Q42.1Desmond Bane misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot126–123
- Q48.1Jake LaRavia enters the game for Zach Edey126–123
- Q48.1Grizzlies Full timeout126–123
- Q48.1Santi Aldama defensive rebound126–123
- Q48.2Josh Giddey misses free throw 2 of 2126–123
- Q48.2Zach Edey enters the game for Jake LaRavia126–123
- Q48.2Josh Giddey makes free throw 1 of 2126–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:07Zach LaVine makes 25-foot three point jumper (Lonzo Ball assists)CHI 111 – 109 MEM · CHI 39% → 55% +16CHI 39% → 55%+16 pts
- Q46:57Scotty Pippen Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)CHI 111 – 112 MEM · MEM 45% → 61% +16MEM 45% → 61%+16 pts
- Q46:39Nikola Vucevic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Zach LaVine assists)CHI 114 – 112 MEM · CHI 39% → 55% +17CHI 39% → 55%+17 pts
- Q46:01Coby White makes 24-foot three point jumper (Lonzo Ball assists)CHI 117 – 112 MEM · CHI 56% → 72% +16CHI 56% → 72%+16 pts
- Q44:20Jay Huff makes 26-foot three point shot (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)CHI 120 – 117 MEM · MEM 18% → 34% +17MEM 18% → 34%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -4.5
- ML CHI +180 / MEM -210
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -1
- MEM 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.1 pts
- MEM: Elo 53.4%, market 65.5%
- Fair odds
- MEM -190
- CHI +190 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 113.5 – 118.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −39 | +17 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +24 Elo | MEM 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 64.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 65.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 119.36th of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.7 | Points allowed | 121.026th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.7 | Margin | −1.714th of 30 |
| 29th of 30101.4 | Offense rating | 111.68th of 30 |
| 7th of 30107.4 | Defense rating | 113.220th of 30 |
| 1st of 30111.6 | Pace | 106.93rd of 30 |
| 9th of 271–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 2–0 MEM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.