Orlando Magic at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints23
- Franz WagnerAssists3
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds10
Grizzlies- Santi AldamaPoints22
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Assists12
- Santi AldamaRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–124
- Q420.1Cory Joseph makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot111–124
- Q436.1Jaylen Wells makes two point shot (Jake LaRavia assists)108–124
- Q441.0Grizzlies offensive team rebound108–122
- Q443.1Yuki Kawamura misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot108–122
- Q454.1Caleb Houstan makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mac McClung assists)108–122
- Q41:07Jaylen Wells makes free throw 2 of 2105–122
- Q41:07Jaylen Wells makes free throw 1 of 2105–121
- Q41:07Caleb Houstan personal foul105–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:49Jaylen Wells makes 22-foot three point jumper (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)ORL 10 – 18 MEM · MEM 62% → 68% +6MEM 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q11:48Jay Huff makes 26-foot three point jumper (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)ORL 18 – 28 MEM · MEM 67% → 73% +6MEM 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q33:15Jalen Suggs makes 29-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 73 – 83 MEM · ORL 11% → 17% +6ORL 11% → 17%+6 pts
- Q32:29Jay Huff makes 27-foot three point shot (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)ORL 75 – 88 MEM · MEM 83% → 89% +6MEM 83% → 89%+6 pts
- Q31:43Jalen Suggs makes 27-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)ORL 78 – 88 MEM · ORL 10% → 16% +6ORL 10% → 16%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -0.5
- ML ORL -105 / MEM -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -2
- MEM 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.6 pts
- MEM: Elo 41.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MEM -104
- ORL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 110.5 – 111.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1403 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | MEM and ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −9 | +31 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +60 Elo | ORL 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 51.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.5 | Points scored | 105.830th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.4 | Points allowed | 112.812th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+2.0 | Margin | −7.026th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 105.330th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 112.312th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.6 | Pace | 99.916th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 19th of 3018–23 | Road vs home | 9–3228th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 1–1 MEM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.