Milwaukee Bucks at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints37
- Damian LillardAssists6
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–122
- Q45.1Ryan Rollins makes free throw 2 of 299–122
- Q45.1Bucks offensive team rebound98–122
- Q45.1Ryan Rollins misses free throw 1 of 298–122
- Q45.1
Jake LaRavia personal foul98–122 - Q415.1shot clock turnover98–122
- Q437.2Zach Edey defensive rebound98–122
- Q440.1Ryan Rollins misses 23-foot three point jumper98–122
- Q453.0Jay Huff makes dunk98–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:58Santi Aldama makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)MIL 17 – 25 MEM · MEM 44% → 51% +7MEM 44% → 51%+7 pts
- Q28:52Pat Connaughton makes 26-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 35 – 44 MEM · MIL 35% → 42% +7MIL 35% → 42%+7 pts
- Q27:39Jaylen Wells makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)MIL 35 – 47 MEM · MEM 58% → 66% +7MEM 58% → 66%+7 pts
- Q26:52Bobby Portis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 40 – 49 MEM · MIL 34% → 41% +7MIL 34% → 41%+7 pts
- Q24:56Ja Morant makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jake LaRavia assists)MIL 44 – 54 MEM · MEM 55% → 62% +8MEM 55% → 62%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -6.5
- ML MIL -240 / MEM +195
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -3
- MIL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 61.9%, market 67.6%
- Fair odds
- MIL -208
- MEM +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 118.5 – 112.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1393 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −2 | +25 | MIL: Usual rotation · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +85 Elo | MIL 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 67.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.0 | Points scored | 117.48th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30119.0 | Points allowed | 121.627th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−5.0 | Margin | −4.219th of 30 |
| 15th of 30110.5 | Offense rating | 111.013th of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.3 | Defense rating | 115.024th of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.3 | Pace | 105.93rd of 30 |
| 20th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 1–220th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 0–2 MEM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.