Philadelphia 76ers at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints32
- Kyle LowryAssists7
- Caleb MartinRebounds10
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints35
- Kevin DurantAssists6
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–118
- Q42.0Caleb Martin offensive rebound116–118
- Q43.1Paul George misses 22-foot step back jumpshot116–118
- Q424.0Kevin Durant makes driving layup116–118
- Q433.1Grayson Allen offensive rebound116–116
- Q438.0Kevin Durant misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot116–116
- Q447.1Bradley Beal defensive rebound116–116
- Q449.1Tyrese Maxey misses free throw 2 of 2116–116
- Q449.1Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2116–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:04Tyrese Maxey makes 27-foot three point jumper (Caleb Martin assists)PHI 104 – 101 PHX · PHI 41% → 57% +16PHI 41% → 57%+16 pts
- Q46:46Kevin Durant makes 25-foot three pointerPHI 104 – 104 PHX · PHX 42% → 59% +16PHX 42% → 59%+16 pts
- Q46:26Tyrese Maxey makes 27-foot three pointerPHI 107 – 104 PHX · PHI 41% → 58% +17PHI 41% → 58%+17 pts
- Q41:00Kevin Durant makes 14-foot step back jumpshotPHI 115 – 116 PHX · PHX 39% → 67% +28PHX 39% → 67%+28 pts
- Q424.0Kevin Durant makes driving layupPHI 116 – 118 PHX · PHX 52% → 88% +36PHX 52% → 88%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -7.5
- ML PHI +250 / PHX -300
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -5
- PHX 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- PHX: Elo 68.3%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- PHX -263
- PHI +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 107.5 – 115.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −37 | −13 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +133 Elo | PHX 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 68.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 68.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30107.2 | Points scored | 113.812th of 30 |
| 20th of 30116.4 | Points allowed | 109.813th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.2 | Margin | +4.07th of 30 |
| 28th of 30104.8 | Offense rating | 111.314th of 30 |
| 21st of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 107.38th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.3 | Pace | 100.720th of 30 |
| 12th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–4 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 1–4 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–1 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–1 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–1 PHX in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.