Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints20
- Anfernee SimonsAssists6
- Deandre AytonRebounds13
Suns- Devin BookerPoints28
- Devin BookerAssists9
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–103
- Q41.1Kevin Durant defensive rebound97–103
- Q41.1Anfernee Simons misses 24-foot three point shot97–103
- Q44.1Trail Blazers Full timeout97–103
- Q44.1Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 297–103
- Q44.1Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 297–102
- Q44.1Jerami Grant personal foul97–101
- Q44.1Devin Booker defensive rebound97–101
- Q46.1Deni Avdija misses finger roll layup97–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q254.1Anfernee Simons makes 26-foot three pointerPOR 47 – 43 PHX · POR 24% → 31% +7POR 24% → 31%+7 pts
- Q311:07Bradley Beal makes 25-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)POR 47 – 48 PHX · PHX 73% → 80% +7PHX 73% → 80%+7 pts
- Q41:33Deni Avdija makes 24-foot three point shot (Dalano Banton assists)POR 94 – 97 PHX · POR 3% → 14% +12POR 3% → 14%+12 pts
- Q41:18Devin Booker makes 18-foot jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)POR 94 – 99 PHX · PHX 87% → 96% +9PHX 87% → 96%+9 pts
- Q41:04Dalano Banton makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)POR 97 – 99 PHX · POR 3% → 19% +17POR 3% → 19%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -12.5
- ML POR +590 / PHX -900
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -8
- PHX 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- PHX: Elo 79.0%, market 86.1%
- Fair odds
- PHX -621
- POR +621 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 108.5 – 121.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −24 | −14 | POR: Missing Robert Williams III −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | POR crossed 1 time zone and PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +230 Elo | PHX 79.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 83.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 82.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 86.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30108.3 | Points scored | 116.011th of 30 |
| 21st of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 112.412th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−8.5 | Margin | +3.67th of 30 |
| 26th of 30105.9 | Offense rating | 113.97th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 110.413th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.3 | Pace | 100.122nd of 30 |
| 13th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−24 Elo- Robert Williams III strained left hamstring−6 Elo
Suns
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–3 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | — | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 1–3 PHX in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.