Houston Rockets at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints27
- Fred VanVleetAssists7
- Alperen SengunRebounds10
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints26
- Cade CunninghamAssists9
- Cade CunninghamRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–99
- Q41.0Pistons offensive team rebound101–99
- Q41.0Tobias Harris misses free throw 2 of 2101–99
- Q41.0Pistons offensive team rebound101–99
- Q41.0Tobias Harris misses free throw 1 of 2101–99
- Q41.0Tari Eason personal foul101–99
- Q41.0Tobias Harris offensive rebound101–99
- Q41.2Jaden Ivey misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot101–99
- Q46.0Jaden Ivey offensive rebound101–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:43Tari Eason makes 22-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 92 – 90 DET · HOU 45% → 67% +22HOU 45% → 67%+22 pts
- Q43:03Isaiah Stewart makes layup (Cade Cunningham assists)HOU 94 – 95 DET · DET 39% → 56% +16DET 39% → 56%+16 pts
- Q42:28Alperen Sengun makes two point shotHOU 96 – 95 DET · HOU 43% → 61% +18HOU 43% → 61%+18 pts
- Q41:47Dillon Brooks makes 3-foot dunkHOU 98 – 95 DET · HOU 63% → 81% +18HOU 63% → 81%+18 pts
- Q445.1Tobias Harris makes 22-foot three point jumperHOU 100 – 98 DET · DET 2% → 19% +18DET 2% → 19%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -3.5
- ML HOU -170 / DET +140
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -2.5
- HOU 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 60.3%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -151
- DET +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 111.0 – 107.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1416 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +26 | +16 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +72 Elo | HOU 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 61.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 107.924th of 30 |
| 8th of 30108.9 | Points allowed | 110.512th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.1 | Margin | −2.619th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 108.023rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30107.8 | Defense rating | 110.613th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.9 | Pace | 99.823rd of 30 |
| 9th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 2–321st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–4 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 2–0 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.