San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints15
- Chris PaulAssists4
- Sandro MamukelashviliRebounds7
Rockets- Fred VanVleetPoints21
- Fred VanVleetAssists10
- Fred VanVleetRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–127
- Q47.2shot clock turnover99–127
- Q429.1Jeff Green defensive rebound99–127
- Q433.1David Duke Jr. misses 29-foot three point jumper99–127
- Q443.2Harrison Ingram defensive rebound99–127
- Q445.1Jack McVeigh misses layup99–127
- Q452.0Sidy Cissoko bad pass (Jeff Green steals)99–127
- Q454.1Riley Minix defensive rebound99–127
- Q455.0Cam Whitmore misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot99–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:36Fred VanVleet makes two point shotSA 2 – 4 HOU · HOU 70% → 73% +4HOU 70% → 73%+4 pts
- Q17:09Chris Paul makes 27-foot running pullup jump shotSA 5 – 9 HOU · SA 19% → 24% +5SA 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q13:55Fred VanVleet makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotSA 8 – 20 HOU · HOU 84% → 88% +4HOU 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q211:20Blake Wesley makes 27-foot three point jumper (Julian Champagnie assists)SA 22 – 32 HOU · SA 11% → 15% +4SA 11% → 15%+4 pts
- Q211:03Jock Landale makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)SA 22 – 35 HOU · HOU 85% → 89% +4HOU 85% → 89%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -6.5
- ML SA +220 / HOU -270
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -5
- HOU 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 68.5%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -234
- SA +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 104.5 – 111.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | +28 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | SA crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +135 Elo | HOU 68.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 69.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 69.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30105.0 | Points scored | 111.918th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.9 | Points allowed | 107.75th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +4.16th of 30 |
| 26th of 30106.8 | Offense rating | 111.215th of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.7 | Defense rating | 107.14th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.3 | Pace | 99.125th of 30 |
| 25th of 301–3 | Road vs home | 2–213th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–3 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 2–4 HOU in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.