New York Knicks at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints29
- Jalen BrunsonAssists8
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds19
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints25
- Alperen SengunAssists5
- Alperen SengunRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–109
- Q411.1Jalen Green defensive rebound97–109
- Q413.0Mikal Bridges misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot97–109
- Q419.1Jalen Green makes 3-foot dunk (Amen Thompson assists)97–109
- Q424.1Jalen Brunson bad pass (Jalen Green steals)97–107
- Q431.2Amen Thompson makes free throw 2 of 297–107
- Q431.2Amen Thompson makes free throw 1 of 297–106
- Q431.2Josh Hart shooting foul97–105
- Q452.0Jalen Green defensive rebound97–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:38Josh Hart makes driving layup (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 92 – 93 HOU · NY 32% → 45% +13NY 32% → 45%+13 pts
- Q44:15Alperen Sengun makes driving layupNY 92 – 95 HOU · HOU 56% → 69% +13HOU 56% → 69%+13 pts
- Q43:27Jalen Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)NY 92 – 98 HOU · HOU 71% → 87% +16HOU 71% → 87%+16 pts
- Q43:04Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 95 – 98 HOU · NY 11% → 28% +16NY 11% → 28%+16 pts
- Q42:10Tari Eason makes two point shot (Jalen Green assists)NY 95 – 100 HOU · HOU 76% → 89% +12HOU 76% → 89%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- NY -2.5
- ML NY -130 / HOU +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -0.5
- NY 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- NY: Elo 51.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NY -119
- HOU +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 110.5 – 108.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +14 | +24 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +7 Elo | NY 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 54.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.0 | Points scored | 112.318th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.0 | Points allowed | 109.58th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+7.0 | Margin | +2.89th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.4 | Offense rating | 110.615th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 107.88th of 30 |
| 30th of 3096.3 | Pace | 99.924th of 30 |
| 8th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 1–219th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–2 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 2–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 1–1 HOU in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.