Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints23
- Jalen GreenAssists4
- Jalen GreenRebounds12
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints29
- Kyrie IrvingAssists7
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–102
- Q40.0Mavericks offensive team rebound108–102
- Q40.0Naji Marshall misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot108–102
- Q45.1Jalen Green makes free throw 2 of 2108–102
- Q45.1Rockets offensive team rebound107–102
- Q45.1Jalen Green misses free throw 1 of 2107–102
- Q45.1Quentin Grimes personal take foul107–102
- Q411.0Quentin Grimes enters the game for Luka Doncic107–102
- Q411.0Naji Marshall personal take foul107–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:57Klay Thompson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyrie Irving assists)HOU 98 – 94 DAL · DAL 13% → 28% +15DAL 13% → 28%+15 pts
- Q42:58Jalen Green makes 2-foot two point shotHOU 100 – 94 DAL · HOU 76% → 87% +11HOU 76% → 87%+11 pts
- Q42:07Luka Doncic makes 26-foot three pointerHOU 100 – 97 DAL · DAL 8% → 26% +18DAL 8% → 26%+18 pts
- Q41:12Jalen Green makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshotHOU 103 – 97 DAL · HOU 82% → 97% +15HOU 82% → 97%+15 pts
- Q41:08Luka Doncic makes 29-foot three point step back jumpshot (P.J. Washington assists)HOU 103 – 100 DAL · DAL 3% → 17% +15DAL 3% → 17%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -6.5
- ML HOU +205 / DAL -250
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -3.5
- DAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- DAL: Elo 64.0%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- DAL -218
- HOU +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 109.5 – 116.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1592 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +27 | +10 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +100 Elo | DAL 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 66.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30111.3 | Points scored | 113.016th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.0 | Points allowed | 109.89th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.3 | Margin | +3.38th of 30 |
| 18th of 30109.8 | Offense rating | 112.29th of 30 |
| 5th of 30105.6 | Defense rating | 109.010th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.3 | Pace | 101.020th of 30 |
| 10th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–3 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.