Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Buddy HieldPoints27
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists6
- Draymond GreenRebounds11
Rockets- Tari EasonPoints27
- Fred VanVleetAssists5
- Amen ThompsonRebounds11
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game127–121
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime127–121
- OT2.1Kyle Anderson defensive rebound127–121
- OT5.1Jabari Smith Jr. misses 25-foot three point jumper127–121
- OT8.1Buddy Hield lost ball turnover (Jabari Smith Jr. steals)127–121
- OT13.2Lindy Waters III enters the game for Kevon Looney127–121
- OT13.2Warriors Full timeout127–121
- OT17.2Jalen Green enters the game for Fred VanVleet127–121
- OT17.2Fred VanVleet personal take foul127–121
- OT18.1Buddy Hield defensive rebound127–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:56Draymond Green makes 24-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)GS 101 – 98 HOU · GS 45% → 61% +16GS 45% → 61%+16 pts
- Q45:43Buddy Hield makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 104 – 102 HOU · GS 40% → 57% +18GS 40% → 57%+18 pts
- Q42:19Amen Thompson makes 8-foot two point shotGS 112 – 110 HOU · HOU 19% → 34% +15HOU 19% → 34%+15 pts
- Q41:58Buddy Hield makes driving layupGS 114 – 110 HOU · GS 67% → 83% +16GS 67% → 83%+16 pts
- Q48.1Tari Eason makes free throw 2 of 2GS 119 – 119 HOU · HOU 17% → 51% +34HOU 17% → 51%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -4.5
- ML GS +160 / HOU -190
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -1.5
- HOU 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 55.4%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -170
- GS +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 105.5 – 110.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1586 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −12 | +31 | GS: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | GS crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +38 Elo | HOU 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 59.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30119.8 | Points scored | 110.623rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3099.4 | Points allowed | 106.04th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+20.4 | Margin | +4.67th of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.9 | Offense rating | 110.318th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3097.0 | Defense rating | 105.75th of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.2 | Pace | 100.320th of 30 |
| 1st of 302–0 | Road vs home | 1–112th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–1 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–1 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–3 | 1–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 3–0 HOU in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.