New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints31
- CJ McCollumAssists5
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds8
Warriors- Buddy HieldPoints28
- Draymond GreenAssists7
- Kevon LooneyRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–124
- Q44.0Moses Moody makes 23-foot three point jumper (Trayce Jackson-Davis assists)106–124
- Q425.1Yves Missi makes 3-foot driving dunk (Brandon Boston Jr. assists)106–121
- Q437.1Moses Moody makes 28-foot three point jumper (Gui Santos assists)104–121
- Q449.1Jamal Cain makes 26-foot three point jumper (Yves Missi assists)104–118
- Q41:01Pat Spencer makes 3-foot two point shot (Trayce Jackson-Davis assists)101–118
- Q41:14Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jose Alvarado assists)101–116
- Q41:22Yves Missi defensive rebound98–116
- Q41:24Pat Spencer misses driving layup98–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:49Lindy Waters III makes 28-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)NO 67 – 69 GS · GS 43% → 53% +10GS 43% → 53%+10 pts
- Q35:22Javonte Green makes 22-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)NO 70 – 74 GS · NO 30% → 40% +10NO 30% → 40%+10 pts
- Q32:05Brandon Ingram makes 26-foot three point jumper (Yves Missi assists)NO 77 – 81 GS · NO 28% → 38% +10NO 28% → 38%+10 pts
- Q31:45Buddy Hield makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kevon Looney assists)NO 77 – 84 GS · GS 62% → 72% +10GS 62% → 72%+10 pts
- Q32.1Buddy Hield makes 24-foot three point shot (Kyle Anderson assists)NO 79 – 87 GS · GS 67% → 77% +10GS 67% → 77%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- NO -2.5
- ML NO -140 / GS +120
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 42%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -4
- NO 35%
- Ratings vs. market
- −20.9 pts
- NO: Elo 35.3%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- NO -128
- GS +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 110.0 – 107.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1570 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −38 | −29 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +106 Elo | GS 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 57.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30110.3 | Points scored | 123.72nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.0 | Points allowed | 100.72nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30−2.7 | Margin | +23.01st of 30 |
| 28th of 30105.2 | Offense rating | 115.94th of 30 |
| 7th of 30107.7 | Defense rating | 94.32nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30104.9 | Pace | 106.35th of 30 |
| 10th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 0–120th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 2–1 GS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.