New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Jordan HawkinsPoints23
- Brandon IngramAssists6
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds12
Warriors- Buddy HieldPoints21
- Brandin PodziemskiAssists7
- Trayce Jackson-DavisRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game89–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter89–104
- Q415.1Gary Payton II offensive rebound89–104
- Q418.1Moses Moody misses 28-foot three point jumper89–104
- Q424.1Reece Beekman offensive rebound89–104
- Q424.1Gui Santos misses 25-foot three point jumper89–104
- Q436.1Warriors defensive team rebound89–104
- Q437.1Jose Alvarado misses two point shot89–104
- Q456.1Reece Beekman makes driving layup (Pat Spencer assists)89–104
- Q41:09Trey Jemison makes tip shot89–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:43Draymond Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)NO 36 – 37 GS · GS 52% → 60% +8GS 52% → 60%+8 pts
- Q25:21Jordan Hawkins makes 26-foot three pointer (Jeremiah Robinson-Earl assists)NO 39 – 37 GS · NO 40% → 48% +8NO 40% → 48%+8 pts
- Q23:24Draymond Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Moses Moody assists)NO 39 – 42 GS · GS 57% → 65% +8GS 57% → 65%+8 pts
- Q24.0Brandon Ingram makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jose Alvarado assists)NO 44 – 45 GS · NO 33% → 41% +8NO 33% → 41%+8 pts
- Q21.0Buddy Hield makes 26-foot three pointer (Draymond Green assists)NO 44 – 48 GS · GS 59% → 67% +8GS 59% → 67%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- GS -3.5
- ML NO +135 / GS -155
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -6.5
- GS 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +14.7 pts
- GS: Elo 73.6%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- GS -143
- NO +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 108.0 – 111.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1580 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | GS and NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −78 | −16 | NO: Missing CJ McCollum −25 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +178 Elo | GS 73.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 61.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30109.3 | Points scored | 123.83rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 102.02nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−6.5 | Margin | +21.81st of 30 |
| 25th of 30105.7 | Offense rating | 118.24th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 97.42nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.4 | Pace | 104.06th of 30 |
| 19th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 1–110th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−78 Elo- CJ McCollum right adductor−25 Elo
Warriors
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 2–2 GS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.