New York Knicks at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints36
- Karl-Anthony TownsAssists7
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds11
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints22
- Cade CunninghamAssists6
- Tobias HarrisRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–98
- Q43.1shot clock turnover128–98
- Q427.1Ronald Holland II makes two point shot128–98
- Q437.1Ronald Holland II defensive rebound128–96
- Q438.1Tyler Kolek misses driving layup128–96
- Q449.0Daniss Jenkins personal foul128–96
- Q456.2Paul Reed makes free throw 1 of 1128–96
- Q456.2Jericho Sims enters the game for Miles McBride128–95
- Q456.2Ariel Hukporti shooting foul128–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:29Mikal Bridges makes 12-foot two point shot (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 2 – 0 DET · NY 70% → 74% +4NY 70% → 74%+4 pts
- Q110:48Karl-Anthony Towns makes 4-foot layup (OG Anunoby assists)NY 4 – 0 DET · NY 73% → 77% +3NY 73% → 77%+3 pts
- Q110:35Jalen Duren makes driving layup (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)NY 4 – 2 DET · DET 23% → 27% +3DET 23% → 27%+3 pts
- Q110:15Jalen Brunson makes 1-foot two point shot (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)NY 6 – 2 DET · NY 73% → 77% +3NY 73% → 77%+3 pts
- Q18:13OG Anunoby makes 26-foot three point shot (Josh Hart assists)NY 13 – 4 DET · NY 80% → 84% +4NY 80% → 84%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NY -6.5
- ML NY -275 / DET +220
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -3.5
- NY 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- NY: Elo 64.1%, market 70.1%
- Fair odds
- NY -235
- DET +235 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 112.5 – 106.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1395 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +1 | +20 | NY: Usual rotation · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +101 Elo | NY 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 72.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 72.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 70.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 106.226th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 110.610th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −4.421st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.8 | Offense rating | 108.122nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30117.5 | Defense rating | 112.618th of 30 |
| 30th of 3095.0 | Pace | 98.228th of 30 |
| 12th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 0–225th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NY 3–0 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.