Detroit Pistons at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Jaden IveyPoints21
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- Cade CunninghamRebounds10
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints27
- LaMelo BallAssists8
- Miles BridgesRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–108
- Q40.0(00:00) [Pistons] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)107–108
- Q40.0Brandon Miller makes tip shot107–108
- Q42.0Brandon Miller offensive rebound107–106
- Q43.0Grant Williams misses 26-foot three point jumper107–106
- Q46.1Miles Bridges enters the game for Tre Mann107–106
- Q46.1Josh Green enters the game for Seth Curry107–106
- Q46.1Hornets Full timeout107–106
- Q46.1Ronald Holland II makes two point shot107–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:17Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 25-foot three point shot (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 101 – 98 CHA · DET 50% → 76% +26DET 50% → 76%+26 pts
- Q42:00LaMelo Ball makes 31-foot three pointerDET 101 – 101 CHA · CHA 22% → 50% +28CHA 22% → 50%+28 pts
- Q455.0LaMelo Ball makes 30-foot three point step back jumpshotDET 103 – 104 CHA · CHA 22% → 65% +42CHA 22% → 65%+42 pts
- Q46.1Ronald Holland II makes two point shotDET 107 – 106 CHA · DET 13% → 87% +74DET 13% → 87%+74 pts
- Q40.0Brandon Miller makes tip shotDET 107 – 108 CHA · CHA 0% → 100% +100CHA 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DET -1.5
- ML DET -115 / CHA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -1
- DET 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- DET: Elo 54.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -104
- CHA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 112.0 – 110.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1416 | 1395 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | −12 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | CHA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +28 Elo | DET 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 51.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30106.3 | Points scored | 111.321st of 30 |
| 11th of 30109.5 | Points allowed | 118.322nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−3.3 | Margin | −7.026th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30107.7 | Offense rating | 110.017th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 117.030th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.6 | Pace | 101.018th of 30 |
| 12th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 1–322nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–3 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | — | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 2–6 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–0 CHA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.