Boston Celtics at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints29
- Jrue HolidayAssists6
- Derrick WhiteRebounds8
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints36
- LaMelo BallAssists6
- Miles BridgesRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–103
- Q49.1Neemias Queta defensive rebound113–103
- Q413.1Cody Martin misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot113–103
- Q417.2Jayson Tatum makes free throw 2 of 2113–103
- Q417.2Moussa Diabate enters the game for Grant Williams112–103
- Q417.2Jayson Tatum makes free throw 1 of 2112–103
- Q417.2Brandon Miller personal foul111–103
- Q419.0Grant Williams makes 1-foot layup (Miles Bridges assists)111–103
- Q420.2Hornets Full timeout111–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:01Josh Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)BOS 70 – 67 CHA · CHA 15% → 21% +6CHA 15% → 21%+6 pts
- Q36:39Jrue Holiday makes 25-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)BOS 73 – 67 CHA · BOS 79% → 85% +7BOS 79% → 85%+7 pts
- Q49:31LaMelo Ball makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brandon Miller assists)BOS 85 – 79 CHA · CHA 7% → 14% +6CHA 7% → 14%+6 pts
- Q46:49Josh Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)BOS 93 – 87 CHA · CHA 6% → 12% +7CHA 6% → 12%+7 pts
- Q46:20Derrick White makes 29-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)BOS 96 – 87 CHA · BOS 88% → 95% +7BOS 88% → 95%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -10.5
- ML BOS -525 / CHA +400
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -6
- BOS 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 72.3%, market 80.8%
- Fair odds
- BOS -420
- CHA +420 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 121.0 – 110.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1636 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | CHA and BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −28 | −2 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +167 Elo | BOS 72.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 76.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 76.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 80.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30125.5 | Points scored | 116.612th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.5 | Points allowed | 120.226th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+12.0 | Margin | −3.619th of 30 |
| 1st of 30121.9 | Offense rating | 114.66th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 118.229th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.9 | Pace | 101.516th of 30 |
| 7th of 303–1 | Road vs home | 1–220th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–2 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | — | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–1 CHA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.