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Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast

Final/OTESPN, NBC Sports BO, FanDuel SN IN

Away

Celtics

4-1

132–135

at

Home

Pacers

2-3

BOS 70%IND 30%

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Gainbridge Fieldhouse · ESPN, NBC Sports BO, FanDuel SN IN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.

IND favored BOS favored139 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4OTIND50%BOS

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Celtics

Last plays

  • OT0.0End of Game132–135
  • OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime132–135
  • OT3.0Tyrese Haliburton enters the game for T.J. McConnell132–135
  • OT3.0Pacers defensive team rebound132–135
  • OT5.1Jaylen Brown misses 26-foot three point jumper132–135
  • OT6.0Sam Hauser enters the game for Neemias Queta132–135
  • OT6.0T.J. McConnell enters the game for Tyrese Haliburton132–135
  • OT6.0Celtics Full timeout132–135
  • OT7.1Pascal Siakam makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)132–135
  • OT25.1Payton Pritchard vs. Ben Sheppard (Pascal Siakam gains possession)132–132

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q420.1Tyrese Haliburton makes 14-foot two point shotBOS 121 – 124 IND · IND 72% → 97% +25
  2. Q414.1Jayson Tatum makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 124 – 124 IND · BOS 1% → 51% +50
  3. OT39.1Derrick White makes driving layupBOS 132 – 130 IND · BOS 52% → 83% +31
  4. OT36.1Pascal Siakam makes 10-foot two point shot (Tyrese Haliburton assists)BOS 132 – 132 IND · IND 16% → 48% +32
  5. OT7.1Pascal Siakam makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)BOS 132 – 135 IND · IND 49% → >99% +51

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Celtics 70%

StrongMiss
BOS 70%IND 30%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.

Market
BOS -6.5
ML BOS -270 / IND +220
Pre-line forecast
BOS 69%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
BOS -4.5
BOS 67%
Ratings vs. market
−3.5 pts
BOS: Elo 66.5%, market 70.0%
Fair odds
BOS -234
IND +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
BOS 121.0 – 114.5 IND
Posted spread, posted total 235.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorBOSINDWhy
Team rating16381513Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−5−36BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Missing Myles Turner −17 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsBOS +119 EloBOS 66.5%
Market-implied ratingsBOS 69.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastBOS 68.8%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastBOS 70.0%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers compared, with each team's league rank
BOSStatIND
1st of 30124.3Points scored110.524th of 30
7th of 30109.3Points allowed117.320th of 30
4th of 30+15.0Margin−6.825th of 30
1st of 30124.1Offense rating107.819th of 30
10th of 30109.1Defense rating114.322nd of 30
24th of 30100.1Pace99.826th of 30
1st of 302–0Road vs home0–121st of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Celtics

−5 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Pacers

−36 Elo
  • Myles Turner left ankle sprain−17 Elo

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CelticsPacers
13001400150016001700league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

BOS 7–2 IND in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.