Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints26
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists10
- Pascal SiakamRebounds9
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints50
- Paolo BancheroAssists9
- Paolo BancheroRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–119
- Q43.1Jalen Suggs defensive rebound115–119
- Q47.1Pascal Siakam misses 28-foot three point jumper115–119
- Q49.1Tyrese Haliburton enters the game for Isaiah Jackson115–119
- Q49.1Bennedict Mathurin enters the game for Obi Toppin115–119
- Q49.1Pacers Full timeout115–119
- Q49.1Isaiah Jackson defensive rebound115–119
- Q410.1Paolo Banchero misses free throw 2 of 2115–119
- Q410.1Isaiah Jackson enters the game for Ben Sheppard115–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:27Anthony Black makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)IND 107 – 105 ORL · ORL 26% → 43% +17ORL 26% → 43%+17 pts
- Q45:12Obi Toppin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 110 – 105 ORL · IND 57% → 75% +17IND 57% → 75%+17 pts
- Q43:20Paolo Banchero makes 1-foot two point shot (Jalen Suggs assists)IND 112 – 111 ORL · ORL 31% → 46% +15ORL 31% → 46%+15 pts
- Q452.1Tyrese Haliburton makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshot (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 115 – 115 ORL · IND 11% → 48% +37IND 11% → 48%+37 pts
- Q433.1Anthony Black makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)IND 115 – 118 ORL · ORL 52% → 93% +42ORL 52% → 93%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -5.5
- ML IND +175 / ORL -215
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -2.5
- ORL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- ORL: Elo 60.0%, market 65.2%
- Fair odds
- ORL -188
- IND +188 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 109.5 – 115.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −17 | −16 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | ORL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +71 Elo | ORL 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 60.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 65.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30109.0 | Points scored | 114.312th of 30 |
| 20th of 30116.7 | Points allowed | 107.34th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−7.7 | Margin | +7.05th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30105.7 | Offense rating | 112.87th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 105.97th of 30 |
| 27th of 3099.6 | Pace | 101.518th of 30 |
| 7th of 251–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 1–2 ORL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.