Boston Celtics at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints32
- Jaylen BrownAssists5
- Jayson TatumRebounds11
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints31
- Tre MannAssists5
- Miles BridgesRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–109
- Q420.1Neemias Queta defensive goaltending violation124–109
- Q420.1Moussa Diabate makes two point shot124–109
- Q420.1Moussa Diabate offensive rebound124–107
- Q421.1Tre Mann misses driving layup124–107
- Q433.2JD Davison enters the game for Jayson Tatum124–107
- Q433.2Payton Pritchard makes free throw 2 of 2124–107
- Q433.2Jaden Springer enters the game for Derrick White123–107
- Q433.2Payton Pritchard makes free throw 1 of 2123–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:19Sam Hauser makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 88 – 84 CHA · BOS 72% → 81% +9BOS 72% → 81%+9 pts
- Q410:31LaMelo Ball makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 96 – 94 CHA · CHA 17% → 26% +10CHA 17% → 26%+10 pts
- Q48:29Neemias Queta makes layup (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 100 – 96 CHA · BOS 73% → 81% +7BOS 73% → 81%+7 pts
- Q48:09LaMelo Ball makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshot (Moussa Diabate assists)BOS 100 – 99 CHA · CHA 19% → 31% +12CHA 19% → 31%+12 pts
- Q47:30Jaylen Brown makes driving layup (Derrick White assists)BOS 102 – 99 CHA · BOS 68% → 77% +9BOS 68% → 77%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -10.5
- ML BOS -600 / CHA +400
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -6
- BOS 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 72.2%, market 81.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -429
- CHA +429 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 122.0 – 111.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1629 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −13 | +1 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +166 Elo | BOS 72.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 75.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 74.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 81.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30125.8 | Points scored | 118.54th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 119.325th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+11.4 | Margin | −0.815th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30121.4 | Offense rating | 115.85th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 116.627th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.4 | Pace | 102.113th of 30 |
| 8th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 1–111th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 2–1 CHA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.