Charlotte Hornets at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints19
- Tre MannAssists6
- Miles BridgesRebounds6
Timberwolves- Naz ReidPoints25
- Julius RandleAssists4
- Naz ReidRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–114
- Q418.1K.J. Simpson makes two point shot93–114
- Q418.1K.J. Simpson offensive rebound91–114
- Q422.0Nick Smith Jr. misses 23-foot three point jumper91–114
- Q430.2Terrence Shannon Jr. steps out of bounds turnover91–114
- Q442.1Jared Rhoden makes 7-foot two point shot91–114
- Q41:05Luka Garza personal foul89–114
- Q41:05Rob Dillingham bad pass (Jared Rhoden steals)89–114
- Q41:19Nick Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (K.J. Simpson assists)89–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:56Brandon Miller makes 25-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)CHA 15 – 8 MIN · CHA 29% → 35% +6CHA 29% → 35%+6 pts
- Q16:42Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three pointer (Rudy Gobert assists)CHA 15 – 11 MIN · MIN 65% → 71% +6MIN 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q16:02Naz Reid makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)CHA 18 – 14 MIN · MIN 65% → 71% +6MIN 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q15:28Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)CHA 18 – 17 MIN · MIN 70% → 76% +6MIN 70% → 76%+6 pts
- Q211:41Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 25-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)CHA 24 – 27 MIN · MIN 76% → 81% +5MIN 76% → 81%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -11.5
- ML CHA +360 / MIN -500
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -6.5
- MIN 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 74.4%, market 79.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -383
- CHA +383 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 107.0 – 118.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1402 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | −16 | CHA: Usual rotation · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +185 Elo | MIN 74.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 78.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 77.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 79.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 111.320th of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.0 | Points allowed | 112.514th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−4.7 | Margin | −1.215th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.5 | Offense rating | 112.111th of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.1 | Defense rating | 113.219th of 30 |
| 16th of 30101.5 | Pace | 99.524th of 30 |
| 12th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 2–18th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–3 | 1–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 1–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 0–5 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 1–1 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.