Los Angeles Lakers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints37
- LeBron JamesAssists11
- Anthony DavisRebounds9
Pistons- Jaden IveyPoints26
- Cade CunninghamAssists11
- Jalen DurenRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–115
- Q45.1Cade Cunningham defensive rebound103–115
- Q49.0Anthony Davis misses 28-foot jump bank shot103–115
- Q420.1Jalen Duren makes tip shot103–115
- Q420.1Jalen Duren offensive rebound103–113
- Q420.1Cade Cunningham misses driving floating jump shot103–113
- Q438.1Rui Hachimura makes 25-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)103–113
- Q441.1Cade Cunningham makes driving layup100–113
- Q41:00D'Angelo Russell out of bounds bad pass turnover100–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:03Austin Reaves makes 23-foot three pointer (Anthony Davis assists)LAL 73 – 83 DET · LAL 17% → 25% +8LAL 17% → 25%+8 pts
- Q411:39Jaden Ivey makes 2-foot dunk (Isaiah Stewart assists)LAL 77 – 85 DET · DET 64% → 72% +8DET 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q47:34Austin Reaves makes 27-foot three point shot (LeBron James assists)LAL 86 – 93 DET · LAL 14% → 24% +10LAL 14% → 24%+10 pts
- Q44:10Anthony Davis makes alley oop dunk shot (LeBron James assists)LAL 98 – 103 DET · LAL 14% → 24% +9LAL 14% → 24%+9 pts
- Q43:46Cade Cunningham makes 8-foot two point shotLAL 98 – 105 DET · DET 78% → 87% +9DET 78% → 87%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -6.5
- ML LAL -280 / DET +230
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -5
- LAL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- LAL: Elo 69.9%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- LAL -243
- DET +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 116.0 – 109.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1398 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +17 | +15 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +146 Elo | LAL 69.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 72.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 72.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30118.3 | Points scored | 105.029th of 30 |
| 25th of 30119.0 | Points allowed | 110.412th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −5.423rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30114.5 | Offense rating | 106.923rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 112.517th of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.5 | Pace | 98.228th of 30 |
| 19th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 0–326th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–2 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | — |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 2–0 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.