Detroit Pistons at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints19
- Tobias HarrisAssists6
- Jalen DurenRebounds17
Nets- Cameron JohnsonPoints26
- Ben SimmonsAssists6
- Ben SimmonsRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–92
- Q40.0shot clock turnover106–92
- Q422.2Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound106–92
- Q426.0Noah Clowney misses 24-foot three point jumper106–92
- Q441.1Jalen Duren makes free throw 2 of 2106–92
- Q441.1Jalen Duren makes free throw 1 of 2105–92
- Q441.1Noah Clowney personal foul104–92
- Q454.1Keon Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2104–92
- Q454.1Wendell Moore Jr. enters the game for Jaden Ivey104–91
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:48Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)DET 68 – 69 BKN · DET 32% → 42% +10DET 32% → 42%+10 pts
- Q33:46Simone Fontecchio makes 22-foot three point shot (Tobias Harris assists)DET 73 – 73 BKN · DET 35% → 45% +11DET 35% → 45%+11 pts
- Q31:44Ziaire Williams makes 2-foot layup (Nic Claxton assists)DET 78 – 77 BKN · BKN 43% → 50% +8BKN 43% → 50%+8 pts
- Q31:27Malik Beasley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tobias Harris assists)DET 81 – 77 BKN · DET 50% → 61% +12DET 50% → 61%+12 pts
- Q49:34Malik Beasley makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 89 – 80 BKN · DET 73% → 83% +10DET 73% → 83%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- BKN -3.5
- ML DET +130 / BKN -150
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -3
- BKN 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- BKN: Elo 62.2%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- BKN -138
- DET +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 107.5 – 111.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1381 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +12 | −44 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +86 Elo | BKN 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 59.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BKN 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30104.8 | Points scored | 118.37th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.5 | Points allowed | 116.721st of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.7 | Margin | +1.711th of 30 |
| 25th of 30106.2 | Offense rating | 115.45th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 113.820th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.7 | Pace | 100.621st of 30 |
| 18th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 2–18th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–3 | 5–1 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 5–1 |
| Favorite | — | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–3 BKN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.