Chicago Bulls at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints28
- Josh GiddeyAssists8
- Nikola VucevicRebounds11
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints32
- Ben SimmonsAssists11
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–120
- Q410.1shot clock turnover112–120
- Q428.2Talen Horton-Tucker enters the game for Nikola Vucevic112–120
- Q428.2Ayo Dosunmu enters the game for Zach LaVine112–120
- Q428.2Dalen Terry enters the game for Josh Giddey112–120
- Q428.2Adama Sanogo enters the game for Coby White112–120
- Q428.2Coby White personal take foul112–120
- Q434.1Nikola Vucevic makes free throw 2 of 2112–120
- Q434.1Nikola Vucevic makes free throw 1 of 2111–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:34Coby White makes 30-foot three point jumper (Julian Phillips assists)CHI 93 – 92 BKN · CHI 40% → 53% +13CHI 40% → 53%+13 pts
- Q411:05Jalen Smith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHI 96 – 94 BKN · CHI 44% → 57% +13CHI 44% → 57%+13 pts
- Q43:31Zach LaVine makes 2-foot two point shotCHI 109 – 110 BKN · CHI 27% → 42% +14CHI 27% → 42%+14 pts
- Q43:11Cam Thomas makes driving layupCHI 109 – 112 BKN · BKN 59% → 73% +15BKN 59% → 73%+15 pts
- Q42:33Cam Thomas makes 25-foot three pointerCHI 109 – 115 BKN · BKN 76% → 92% +16BKN 76% → 92%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- BKN -1.5
- ML CHI +105 / BKN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -0.5
- BKN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- BKN: Elo 48.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BKN -114
- CHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 113.0 – 114.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −26 | −54 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · BKN: Missing Trendon Watford −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | CHI crossed 1 time zone and BKN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +14 Elo | CHI 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 55.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BKN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30113.4 | Points scored | 118.05th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.2 | Points allowed | 117.621st of 30 |
| 17th of 30−2.8 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 27th of 30104.6 | Offense rating | 115.15th of 30 |
| 6th of 30107.2 | Defense rating | 114.723rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30108.4 | Pace | 100.320th of 30 |
| 9th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 1–111th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−54 Elo- Trendon Watford left hamstring strain−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–2 | 4–1 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 4–1 |
| Favorite | — | — |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 0–3 BKN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.