Orlando Magic at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints31
- Anthony BlackAssists6
- Paolo BancheroRebounds7
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints21
- Josh GiddeyAssists5
- Nikola VucevicRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–102
- Q40.0Wendell Carter Jr. enters the game for Gary Harris99–102
- Q40.0Nikola Vucevic enters the game for Josh Giddey99–102
- Q40.0Magic Full timeout99–102
- Q40.0Josh Giddey makes free throw 2 of 299–102
- Q40.0Bulls offensive team rebound99–101
- Q40.0Josh Giddey misses free throw 1 of 299–101
- Q40.0Anthony Black personal foul99–101
- Q40.0Zach LaVine defensive rebound99–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:15Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 1-foot dunk (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)ORL 91 – 92 CHI · ORL 35% → 48% +14ORL 35% → 48%+14 pts
- Q43:51Nikola Vucevic makes 10-foot two point shotORL 91 – 94 CHI · CHI 52% → 67% +14CHI 52% → 67%+14 pts
- Q42:27Paolo Banchero makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Jalen Suggs assists)ORL 95 – 95 CHI · ORL 36% → 54% +18ORL 36% → 54%+18 pts
- Q41:12Anthony Black makes 1-foot two point shot (Jonathan Isaac assists)ORL 97 – 98 CHI · ORL 18% → 40% +22ORL 18% → 40%+22 pts
- Q454.0Patrick Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)ORL 97 – 101 CHI · CHI 63% → 93% +30CHI 63% → 93%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -5.5
- ML ORL -220 / CHI +190
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -1
- ORL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.1 pts
- ORL: Elo 54.5%, market 66.6%
- Fair odds
- ORL -199
- CHI +199 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 116.0 – 110.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −7 | −38 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Missing Jalen Smith −8 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +32 Elo | ORL 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 61.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 66.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 116.310th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.3 | Points allowed | 120.525th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.3 | Margin | −4.319th of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 105.327th of 30 |
| 7th of 30107.9 | Defense rating | 109.210th of 30 |
| 19th of 30101.3 | Pace | 110.41st of 30 |
| 10th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 0–124th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−38 Elo- Jalen Smith left knee soreness−8 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ORL 4–0 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.