Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Dillon BrooksPoints17
- Alperen SengunAssists6
- Alperen SengunRebounds9
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints29
- Ajay MitchellAssists7
- Isaiah JoeRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–126
- Q45.1shot clock turnover107–126
- Q416.1Aaron Wiggins offensive rebound107–126
- Q423.1Ousmane Dieng misses 24-foot three point jumper107–126
- Q437.1Jeff Green lost ball turnover (Dillon Jones steals)107–126
- Q446.1Jae'Sean Tate defensive rebound107–126
- Q450.1Aaron Wiggins misses 20-foot step back jumpshot107–126
- Q41:11Jeff Green makes 26-foot three point shot (Reed Sheppard assists)107–126
- Q41:15Jock Landale defensive rebound104–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:42Jalen Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dillon Brooks assists)HOU 20 – 20 OKC · HOU 22% → 27% +5HOU 22% → 27%+5 pts
- Q13:56Tari Eason makes 25-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 25 – 22 OKC · HOU 28% → 34% +6HOU 28% → 34%+6 pts
- Q13:19Alex Caruso makes 26-foot three point jumper (Aaron Wiggins assists)HOU 25 – 27 OKC · OKC 70% → 76% +6OKC 70% → 76%+6 pts
- Q12:11Jalen Green makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotHOU 30 – 27 OKC · HOU 28% → 34% +6HOU 28% → 34%+6 pts
- Q210:54Aaron Wiggins makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ajay Mitchell assists)HOU 31 – 34 OKC · OKC 71% → 77% +6OKC 71% → 77%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -7.5
- ML HOU +270 / OKC -340
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -3.5
- OKC 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.0 pts
- OKC: Elo 63.1%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- OKC -286
- HOU +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 107.0 – 114.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1630 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +35 | +11 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +93 Elo | OKC 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 71.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 70.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30113.8 | Points scored | 114.413th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.8 | Points allowed | 99.41st of 30 |
| 5th of 30+7.0 | Margin | +15.01st of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 108.821st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30106.0 | Defense rating | 94.61st of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.5 | Pace | 105.13rd of 30 |
| 8th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–3 | 6–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 6–2 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 2–2 OKC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.