Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Jalen WilliamsPoints29
- Jalen WilliamsAssists9
- Jalen WilliamsRebounds10
Nuggets- Russell WestbrookPoints29
- Nikola JokicAssists16
- Nikola JokicRebounds20
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–124
- Q40.1Nikola Jokic defensive rebound122–124
- Q40.1Peyton Watson blocks Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 's 4-foot driving layup122–124
- Q415.0Nikola Jokic lost ball turnover (Alex Caruso steals)122–124
- Q415.1Nikola Jokic offensive rebound122–124
- Q416.0Peyton Watson misses free throw 2 of 2122–124
- Q416.0Nuggets offensive team rebound122–124
- Q416.0Peyton Watson misses free throw 1 of 2122–124
- Q416.0Alex Caruso personal take foul122–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:08Michael Porter Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)OKC 108 – 109 DEN · DEN 31% → 50% +18DEN 31% → 50%+18 pts
- Q44:29Christian Braun makes 24-foot three point jumper (Julian Strawther assists)OKC 108 – 112 DEN · DEN 51% → 70% +19DEN 51% → 70%+19 pts
- Q43:24Peyton Watson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Michael Porter Jr. assists)OKC 110 – 117 DEN · DEN 74% → 89% +15DEN 74% → 89%+15 pts
- Q42:48Chet Holmgren makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 113 – 117 DEN · OKC 8% → 23% +15OKC 8% → 23%+15 pts
- Q41:06Jalen Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alex Caruso assists)OKC 120 – 123 DEN · OKC 2% → 17% +15OKC 2% → 17%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -7.5
- ML OKC -260 / DEN +215
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -4.5
- OKC 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- OKC: Elo 66.6%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- OKC -227
- DEN +227 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 116.5 – 109.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1637 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +5 | −62 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +120 Elo | OKC 66.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 67.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30113.3 | Points scored | 118.37th of 30 |
| 1st of 3095.9 | Points allowed | 116.619th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+17.4 | Margin | +1.712th of 30 |
| 21st of 30108.5 | Offense rating | 113.08th of 30 |
| 1st of 3091.8 | Defense rating | 111.417th of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.5 | Pace | 101.513th of 30 |
| 1st of 304–0 | Road vs home | 2–215th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–1 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–1 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 5–1 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 2–5 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–5 | 5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 4–1 DEN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.