Orlando Magic at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints22
- Jalen SuggsAssists6
- Goga BitadzeRebounds9
Thunder- Jalen WilliamsPoints23
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists9
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game86–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter86–102
- Q419.2Ousmane Dieng defensive rebound86–102
- Q423.1Cole Anthony misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot86–102
- Q436.1Dillon Jones makes free throw 2 of 286–102
- Q436.1Thunder offensive team rebound86–101
- Q436.1Dillon Jones misses free throw 1 of 286–101
- Q436.1Caleb Houstan personal foul86–101
- Q439.2Malevy Leons defensive rebound86–101
- Q443.1Jett Howard misses 23-foot three point jumper86–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:41Jalen Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)ORL 0 – 3 OKC · OKC 85% → 89% +3OKC 85% → 89%+3 pts
- Q110:40Chet Holmgren makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)ORL 2 – 8 OKC · OKC 88% → 91% +3OKC 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q18:49Jalen Williams makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotORL 6 – 11 OKC · OKC 87% → 90% +3OKC 87% → 90%+3 pts
- Q14:33Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alex Caruso assists)ORL 17 – 27 OKC · OKC 91% → 94% +2OKC 91% → 94%+2 pts
- Q12:10Alex Caruso makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)ORL 26 – 34 OKC · OKC 89% → 92% +3OKC 89% → 92%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -12.5
- ML ORL +550 / OKC -900
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -8.5
- OKC 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- OKC: Elo 79.8%, market 85.4%
- Fair odds
- OKC -585
- ORL +585 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 102.5 – 115.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1632 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −60 | +2 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | OKC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +239 Elo | OKC 79.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 79.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 79.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 85.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30107.9 | Points scored | 115.211th of 30 |
| 10th of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 97.51st of 30 |
| 17th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +17.71st of 30 |
| 26th of 30106.1 | Offense rating | 110.117th of 30 |
| 9th of 30107.8 | Defense rating | 93.21st of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.6 | Pace | 104.64th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–4 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–5 | 5–1 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 5–1 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 4–1 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 2–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 0–2 OKC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.