Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Jalen SuggsPoints28
- Jalen SuggsAssists7
- Jalen SuggsRebounds8
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints25
- Caris LeVertAssists7
- Evan MobleyRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–120
- Q49.1Tristan da Silva makes free throw 1 of 1109–120
- Q49.1Sam Merrill shooting foul108–120
- Q49.1Tristan da Silva makes two point shot108–120
- Q49.1Tristan da Silva offensive rebound106–120
- Q412.1Caleb Houstan misses 23-foot three point jumper106–120
- Q423.1Magic offensive team rebound106–120
- Q423.1Luke Travers blocks Tristan da Silva 's 4-foot two point shot106–120
- Q428.1Tristan da Silva defensive rebound106–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:38Dean Wade makes 23-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)ORL 12 – 20 CLE · CLE 79% → 84% +4CLE 79% → 84%+4 pts
- Q32:42Jett Howard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tristan da Silva assists)ORL 71 – 81 CLE · ORL 6% → 10% +4ORL 6% → 10%+4 pts
- Q32:30Sam Merrill makes 24-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)ORL 71 – 84 CLE · CLE 90% → 94% +4CLE 90% → 94%+4 pts
- Q32:17Jonathan Isaac makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)ORL 74 – 84 CLE · ORL 6% → 10% +4ORL 6% → 10%+4 pts
- Q32:05Caris LeVert makes 25-foot three pointerORL 74 – 87 CLE · CLE 90% → 94% +4CLE 90% → 94%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -7.5
- ML ORL +240 / CLE -300
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -6
- CLE 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 72.7%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- CLE -255
- ORL +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 104.5 – 112.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −55 | +28 | ORL: Missing Wendell Carter Jr. −10, Goga Bitadze −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | ORL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +170 Elo | CLE 72.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 69.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 69.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30112.2 | Points scored | 125.62nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30107.8 | Points allowed | 107.45th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.4 | Margin | +18.22nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 121.71st of 30 |
| 6th of 30106.6 | Defense rating | 104.03rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.2 | Pace | 103.27th of 30 |
| 20th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−55 Elo- Wendell Carter Jr. right knee tendinitis−10 Elo
- Goga Bitadze left foot−1 Elo
Cavaliers
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–3 | 5–0 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 5–0 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 4–0 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–1 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–1 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 5–6 CLE in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.
- May 5ORL 94 @ CLE 106PlayoffsPicked ORL 55%Miss
- May 3CLE 96 @ ORL 103PlayoffsPicked ORL 66%Hit
- Apr 30ORL 103 @ CLE 104PlayoffsPicked ORL 55%Miss
- Apr 27CLE 89 @ ORL 112PlayoffsPicked ORL 56%Hit
- Apr 25CLE 83 @ ORL 121PlayoffsPicked CLE 50%Miss
- Apr 22ORL 86 @ CLE 96PlayoffsPicked CLE 58%Hit
- Apr 20ORL 83 @ CLE 97PlayoffsPicked CLE 56%Hit
- Feb 22ORL 116 @ CLE 109Picked CLE 64%Miss