Orlando Magic at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints13
- Franz WagnerAssists6
- Franz WagnerRebounds6
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints32
- Luka DoncicAssists7
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game85–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter85–108
- Q412.1shot clock turnover85–108
- Q437.0Caleb Houstan makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Cole Anthony assists)85–108
- Q445.1Jett Howard defensive rebound83–108
- Q447.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper misses 22-foot three point jumper83–108
- Q454.1Quentin Grimes defensive rebound83–108
- Q457.2Jett Howard misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot83–108
- Q41:13Jaden Hardy steps out of bounds turnover83–108
- Q41:25Jett Howard makes free throw 2 of 283–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:35Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 25-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 9 – 6 DAL · ORL 30% → 36% +6ORL 30% → 36%+6 pts
- Q17:09Luka Doncic makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Kyrie Irving assists)ORL 15 – 11 DAL · DAL 55% → 61% +6DAL 55% → 61%+6 pts
- Q13:40Luka Doncic makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshotORL 18 – 17 DAL · DAL 60% → 67% +6DAL 60% → 67%+6 pts
- Q13:20Moritz Wagner makes 1-foot dunk (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 20 – 17 DAL · ORL 33% → 38% +4ORL 33% → 38%+4 pts
- Q13:10Dereck Lively II makes alley oop layup (Luka Doncic assists)ORL 20 – 19 DAL · DAL 62% → 67% +4DAL 62% → 67%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -6.5
- ML ORL +225 / DAL -275
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -5.5
- DAL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- DAL: Elo 70.4%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- DAL -238
- ORL +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 107.0 – 113.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1581 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −43 | +7 | ORL: Missing Goga Bitadze −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +150 Elo | DAL 70.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 68.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 68.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30111.7 | Points scored | 110.822nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30109.8 | Points allowed | 109.47th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+1.8 | Margin | +1.413th of 30 |
| 20th of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 111.015th of 30 |
| 8th of 30108.1 | Defense rating | 109.613th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.6 | Pace | 100.122nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301–3 | Road vs home | 2–17th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−43 Elo- Goga Bitadze left foot strain−1 Elo
Mavericks
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–4 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–1 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–1 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 0–2 DAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.