Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints35
- Trae YoungAssists13
- Clint CapelaRebounds12
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints22
- Cade CunninghamAssists13
- Cade CunninghamRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–122
- Q40.0Hawks offensive team rebound121–122
- Q41.0Cade Cunningham blocks Onyeka Okongwu 's 3-foot layup121–122
- Q48.1Isaiah Stewart enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.121–122
- Q48.1Hawks Full timeout121–122
- Q48.1Cade Cunningham makes 7-foot two point shot (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)121–122
- Q412.1Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Isaiah Stewart121–120
- Q412.1Pistons Full timeout121–120
- Q412.1Trae Young makes free throw 2 of 2121–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:17Tobias Harris makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)ATL 114 – 117 DET · DET 51% → 74% +22DET 51% → 74%+22 pts
- Q442.1Dyson Daniels makes 22-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 119 – 120 DET · ATL 4% → 33% +29ATL 4% → 33%+29 pts
- Q412.1Trae Young makes free throw 1 of 2ATL 120 – 120 DET · ATL 21% → 50% +29ATL 21% → 50%+29 pts
- Q412.1Trae Young makes free throw 2 of 2ATL 121 – 120 DET · ATL 50% → 79% +29ATL 50% → 79%+29 pts
- Q48.1Cade Cunningham makes 7-foot two point shot (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)ATL 121 – 122 DET · DET 16% → 84% +67DET 16% → 84%+67 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DET -2.5
- ML ATL +115 / DET -135
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -1
- DET 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- DET: Elo 54.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -124
- ATL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 112.5 – 115.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1412 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −27 | +14 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +31 Elo | DET 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 106.327th of 30 |
| 28th of 30121.2 | Points allowed | 109.38th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−5.3 | Margin | −3.019th of 30 |
| 18th of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 107.524th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 110.513th of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.5 | Pace | 98.925th of 30 |
| 20th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 1–324th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–7 | 5–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–7 | 5–4 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–1 | 2–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–1 | 2–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 3–0 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.