Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints29
- Trae YoungAssists12
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds9
Pelicans- Brandon IngramPoints32
- Jose AlvaradoAssists7
- Brandon IngramRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–111
- Q42.1Antonio Reeves makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot126–111
- Q412.1Trey Jemison defensive rebound126–108
- Q414.2Keaton Wallace misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot126–108
- Q420.1Keaton Wallace offensive rebound126–108
- Q422.1Keaton Wallace misses driving floating jump shot126–108
- Q440.2Jamal Cain makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandon Boston Jr. assists)126–108
- Q447.1Jamal Cain defensive rebound126–105
- Q451.1Zaccharie Risacher misses 23-foot three point jumper126–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:01Jordan Hawkins makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotATL 69 – 67 NO · NO 33% → 42% +9NO 33% → 42%+9 pts
- Q37:33Trae Young makes 28-foot three pointerATL 75 – 69 NO · ATL 61% → 70% +9ATL 61% → 70%+9 pts
- Q49:48Jamal Cain makes 22-foot three pointer (Brandon Ingram assists)ATL 98 – 92 NO · NO 14% → 24% +9NO 14% → 24%+9 pts
- Q49:12Brandon Ingram makes 25-foot three pointerATL 100 – 95 NO · NO 16% → 27% +10NO 16% → 27%+10 pts
- Q47:55David Roddy makes 24-foot three point jumperATL 105 – 97 NO · ATL 75% → 85% +11ATL 75% → 85%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -1.5
- ML ATL -120 / NO +100
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- ATL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 50.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -109
- NO +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 113.5 – 112.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −35 | −133 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Missing Zion Williamson −56 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +1 Elo | ATL 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 54.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 108.523rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30123.5 | Points allowed | 114.215th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.3 | Margin | −5.723rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30110.7 | Offense rating | 107.023rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30116.7 | Defense rating | 112.618th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.8 | Pace | 101.514th of 30 |
| 28th of 300–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−133 Elo- Zion Williamson right hamstring−56 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 0–6 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 0–6 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–0 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–0 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 1–1 NO in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.