Indiana Pacers at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Ben SheppardPoints20
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists11
- Isaiah JacksonRebounds8
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints34
- Zion WilliamsonAssists10
- Yves MissiRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–125
- Q47.1Yves Missi offensive rebound118–125
- Q410.0Zion Williamson misses free throw 2 of 2118–125
- Q410.0Javonte Green enters the game for Jordan Hawkins118–125
- Q410.0Zion Williamson makes free throw 1 of 2118–125
- Q410.0Bennedict Mathurin personal foul118–124
- Q410.0Zion Williamson defensive rebound118–124
- Q411.1Bennedict Mathurin misses two point shot118–124
- Q413.1Bennedict Mathurin offensive rebound118–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:32Pascal Siakam makes 22-foot three point jumper (Bennedict Mathurin assists)IND 105 – 104 NO · IND 44% → 60% +16IND 44% → 60%+16 pts
- Q43:43Myles Turner makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 110 – 112 NO · IND 20% → 38% +19IND 20% → 38%+19 pts
- Q42:49Zion Williamson makes 2-foot two point shotIND 112 – 115 NO · NO 56% → 72% +16NO 56% → 72%+16 pts
- Q41:40Bennedict Mathurin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 115 – 117 NO · IND 9% → 31% +22IND 9% → 31%+22 pts
- Q41:25Jordan Hawkins makes driving layup (Zion Williamson assists)IND 115 – 119 NO · NO 71% → 88% +17NO 71% → 88%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- IND -4.5
- ML IND -175 / NO +150
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -3.5
- IND 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- IND: Elo 64.0%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- IND -159
- NO +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 117.5 – 113.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +1 | −83 | IND: Usual rotation · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | NO crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +100 Elo | IND 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 56.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 105.227th of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.2 | Points allowed | 113.415th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−4.8 | Margin | −8.227th of 30 |
| 20th of 30109.3 | Offense rating | 103.728th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 111.816th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.3 | Pace | 101.515th of 30 |
| 20th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−83 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 1–1 NO in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.