Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints28
- Jayson TatumAssists9
- Neemias QuetaRebounds7
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints20
- Trae YoungAssists6
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–93
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–93
- Q48.0shot clock turnover123–93
- Q433.0Celtics defensive team rebound123–93
- Q435.1David Roddy misses 25-foot three point jumper123–93
- Q451.1David Roddy defensive rebound123–93
- Q454.1Baylor Scheierman misses running pullup jump shot123–93
- Q458.1Xavier Tillman defensive rebound123–93
- Q41:00Mouhamed Gueye misses 6-foot two point shot123–93
- Q41:15Xavier Tillman makes tip shot123–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q130.0Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotBOS 35 – 30 ATL · BOS 81% → 85% +5BOS 81% → 85%+5 pts
- Q29:26Derrick White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Sam Hauser assists)BOS 41 – 41 ATL · BOS 70% → 76% +6BOS 70% → 76%+6 pts
- Q28:39Jalen Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zaccharie Risacher assists)BOS 41 – 44 ATL · ATL 24% → 30% +6ATL 24% → 30%+6 pts
- Q28:23Payton Pritchard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)BOS 44 – 44 ATL · BOS 69% → 76% +6BOS 69% → 76%+6 pts
- Q27:33Jrue Holiday makes 23-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)BOS 49 – 44 ATL · BOS 79% → 84% +5BOS 79% → 84%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -10.5
- ML BOS -550 / ATL +380
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -7
- BOS 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 75.6%, market 80.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -406
- ATL +406 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 121.5 – 111.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1641 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −27 | −25 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | ATL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +197 Elo | BOS 75.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 78.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 78.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 80.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.7 | Points scored | 118.47th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 121.728th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+11.7 | Margin | −3.320th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.5 | Offense rating | 112.98th of 30 |
| 13th of 30109.1 | Defense rating | 116.027th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.9 | Pace | 104.84th of 30 |
| 7th of 304–1 | Road vs home | 2–212th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–3 | 1–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 1–6 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | — | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 7–0 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 7–0 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–2 ATL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.