New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints34
- Josh HartAssists8
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds16
Hawks- Zaccharie RisacherPoints33
- Trae YoungAssists10
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–121
- Q44.1Zaccharie Risacher makes free throw 2 of 2116–121
- Q44.1Zaccharie Risacher makes free throw 1 of 2116–120
- Q44.1Josh Hart personal take foul116–119
- Q45.1Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Josh Hart assists)116–119
- Q413.0Trae Young makes free throw 2 of 2113–119
- Q413.0Hawks offensive team rebound113–118
- Q413.0Trae Young misses free throw 1 of 2113–118
- Q413.0OG Anunoby personal take foul113–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:29Miles McBride makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)NY 99 – 100 ATL · NY 40% → 55% +15NY 40% → 55%+15 pts
- Q43:00Karl-Anthony Towns makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 110 – 105 ATL · NY 71% → 88% +17NY 71% → 88%+17 pts
- Q42:12Jalen Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)NY 110 – 108 ATL · ATL 9% → 27% +18ATL 9% → 27%+18 pts
- Q41:31Zaccharie Risacher makes 12-foot two point shot (Trae Young assists)NY 110 – 110 ATL · ATL 25% → 46% +21ATL 25% → 46%+21 pts
- Q446.2Clint Capela makes dunk (Trae Young assists)NY 111 – 114 ATL · ATL 63% → 88% +24ATL 63% → 88%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NY -7.5
- ML NY -290 / ATL +240
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -4
- NY 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- NY: Elo 65.0%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- NY -253
- ATL +253 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 116.5 – 109.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +8 | −42 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NY crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +108 Elo | NY 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 65.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 71.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 115.310th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.0 | Points allowed | 121.928th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+3.8 | Margin | −6.626th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 109.717th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 116.027th of 30 |
| 30th of 3096.1 | Pace | 105.03rd of 30 |
| 12th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 2–319th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–3 | 1–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 1–7 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 0–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 7–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 2–1 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.