Detroit Pistons at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints35
- Cade CunninghamAssists11
- Malik BeasleyRebounds10
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints59
- Delon WrightAssists8
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds14
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game120–127
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime120–127
- OT14.1Taurean Prince defensive rebound120–127
- OT18.0Malik Beasley misses 24-foot three point shot120–127
- OT30.1Andre Jackson Jr. enters the game for Pat Connaughton120–127
- OT30.1Pistons Full timeout120–127
- OT30.1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 2-foot driving dunk120–127
- OT35.2Pat Connaughton enters the game for Andre Jackson Jr.120–125
- OT35.2Bucks offensive team rebound120–125
- OT35.2Marcus Sasser blocks Taurean Prince's two point shot120–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:26Cade Cunningham makes 22-foot running pullup jump shot (Jalen Duren assists)DET 106 – 104 MIL · DET 45% → 63% +18DET 45% → 63%+18 pts
- Q41:18Taurean Prince makes driving layup (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)DET 106 – 108 MIL · MIL 54% → 76% +23MIL 54% → 76%+23 pts
- Q41:11Jalen Duren makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 108 – 108 MIL · DET 23% → 47% +24DET 23% → 47%+24 pts
- Q451.1Taurean Prince makes 26-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)DET 108 – 111 MIL · MIL 53% → 89% +36MIL 53% → 89%+36 pts
- Q426.1Marcus Sasser makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 111 – 111 MIL · DET 5% → 48% +43DET 5% → 48%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -7.5
- ML DET +225 / MIL -275
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -1
- MIL 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −24.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 46.3%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -238
- DET +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 102.5 – 110.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 212.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | MIL and DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +44 | −77 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +26 Elo | DET 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 57.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30108.4 | Points scored | 109.521st of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.6 | Points allowed | 112.917th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−2.2 | Margin | −3.421st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30107.9 | Offense rating | 109.019th of 30 |
| 12th of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 112.317th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.5 | Pace | 100.614th of 30 |
| 13th of 295–5 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 29 |
| 13th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 2–322nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−77 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–5 | 4–7 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–8 | 3–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 0–4 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.