Utah Jazz at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Jordan ClarksonPoints18
- Collin SextonAssists7
- Walker KesslerRebounds8
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints34
- Damian LillardAssists7
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–123
- Q41.0shot clock turnover100–123
- Q425.0Brice Sensabaugh makes free throw 2 of 2100–123
- Q425.0Brice Sensabaugh makes free throw 1 of 299–123
- Q425.0Liam Robbins shooting foul98–123
- Q428.1Brice Sensabaugh defensive rebound98–123
- Q432.0Tyler Smith misses 24-foot three point shot98–123
- Q436.0MarJon Beauchamp defensive rebound98–123
- Q439.0Isaiah Collier misses two point shot98–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:06Lauri Markkanen makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)UTAH 45 – 35 MIL · UTAH 37% → 49% +12UTAH 37% → 49%+12 pts
- Q25.2Keyonte George makes 28-foot three pointerUTAH 61 – 57 MIL · UTAH 31% → 39% +8UTAH 31% → 39%+8 pts
- Q311:12Andre Jackson Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Taurean Prince assists)UTAH 61 – 60 MIL · MIL 60% → 68% +8MIL 60% → 68%+8 pts
- Q39:27Taurean Prince makes 23-foot three point shot (Andre Jackson Jr. assists)UTAH 63 – 65 MIL · MIL 68% → 75% +8MIL 68% → 75%+8 pts
- Q35:01Damian Lillard makes 26-foot three point shot (Andre Jackson Jr. assists)UTAH 71 – 75 MIL · MIL 71% → 80% +8MIL 71% → 80%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -9.5
- ML UTAH +350 / MIL -460
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -5
- MIL 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.0 pts
- MIL: Elo 68.7%, market 78.7%
- Fair odds
- MIL -370
- UTAH +370 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 111.5 – 121.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1383 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −23 | −11 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +136 Elo | MIL 68.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 77.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 76.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 78.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30104.9 | Points scored | 111.719th of 30 |
| 25th of 30119.6 | Points allowed | 118.323rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−14.7 | Margin | −6.625th of 30 |
| 30th of 30101.2 | Offense rating | 109.420th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.4 | Defense rating | 115.824th of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.4 | Pace | 102.011th of 30 |
| 19th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 0–228th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | — | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–0 MIL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.