Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints30
- Darius GarlandAssists10
- Jarrett AllenRebounds12
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints41
- Damian LillardAssists9
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–113
- Q40.0Bucks offensive team rebound114–113
- Q40.0Damian Lillard misses 31-foot three point jumper114–113
- Q40.1Bobby Portis enters the game for Gary Trent Jr.114–113
- Q40.1Dean Wade enters the game for Donovan Mitchell114–113
- Q40.1Jarrett Allen enters the game for Darius Garland114–113
- Q40.1Bucks Full timeout114–113
- Q40.1Donovan Mitchell makes 19-foot pullup jump shot114–113
- Q49.1Georges Niang enters the game for Jarrett Allen112–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:29Isaac Okoro makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 107 – 106 MIL · CLE 35% → 55% +20CLE 35% → 55%+20 pts
- Q44:11Damian Lillard makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshotCLE 107 – 109 MIL · MIL 44% → 65% +21MIL 44% → 65%+21 pts
- Q41:08Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 6-foot two point shot (Damian Lillard assists)CLE 112 – 111 MIL · MIL 16% → 37% +21MIL 16% → 37%+21 pts
- Q49.1Damian Lillard makes 15-foot step back jumpshotCLE 112 – 113 MIL · MIL 18% → 82% +65MIL 18% → 82%+65 pts
- Q40.1Donovan Mitchell makes 19-foot pullup jump shotCLE 114 – 113 MIL · CLE 0% → 100% +100CLE 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -1.5
- ML CLE +110 / MIL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -1
- MIL 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 45.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -119
- CLE +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 114.5 – 116.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +9 | −9 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +32 Elo | CLE 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30124.7 | Points scored | 111.021st of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.7 | Points allowed | 119.626th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+17.0 | Margin | −8.627th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.6 | Offense rating | 107.223rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.1 | Defense rating | 115.526th of 30 |
| 10th of 30103.4 | Pace | 103.59th of 30 |
| 1st of 303–0 | Road vs home | 0–125th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–0 | 1–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–0 | 1–4 |
| Favorite | 5–0 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 2–2 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.