Utah Jazz at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints33
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists9
- Walker KesslerRebounds16
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints28
- Josh GiddeyAssists7
- Nikola VucevicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game135–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter135–126
- Q41.1John Collins defensive rebound135–126
- Q43.1Ayo Dosunmu misses 23-foot three point jumper135–126
- Q415.1Collin Sexton makes free throw 2 of 2135–126
- Q415.1Collin Sexton makes free throw 1 of 2134–126
- Q415.1Ayo Dosunmu personal foul133–126
- Q415.1Walker Kessler defensive rebound133–126
- Q417.1Talen Horton-Tucker misses 23-foot three point jumper133–126
- Q423.0Keyonte George makes free throw 2 of 2133–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:21Johnny Juzang makes 26-foot three point jumper (John Collins assists)UTAH 91 – 88 CHI · UTAH 37% → 48% +12UTAH 37% → 48%+12 pts
- Q350.1Coby White makes 28-foot three point jumper (Dalen Terry assists)UTAH 93 – 91 CHI · CHI 43% → 55% +12CHI 43% → 55%+12 pts
- Q411:25Jalen Smith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Talen Horton-Tucker assists)UTAH 97 – 96 CHI · CHI 46% → 58% +13CHI 46% → 58%+13 pts
- Q49:25Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three point shot (Keyonte George assists)UTAH 104 – 96 CHI · UTAH 62% → 74% +13UTAH 62% → 74%+13 pts
- Q48:00Keyonte George makes 25-foot three pointer (Collin Sexton assists)UTAH 111 – 103 CHI · UTAH 65% → 78% +13UTAH 65% → 78%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- CHI 74%
- ML UTAH +270 / CHI -340
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -7.5
- CHI 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- CHI: Elo 77.4%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- CHI -286
- UTAH +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 110.8 – 118.7 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1365 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −75 | −33 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | UTAH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +213 Elo | CHI 77.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 71.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 72.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3099.8 | Points scored | 113.217th of 30 |
| 25th of 30118.5 | Points allowed | 116.822nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−18.7 | Margin | −3.720th of 30 |
| 30th of 3096.3 | Offense rating | 105.327th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.3 | Defense rating | 108.811th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.4 | Pace | 107.51st of 30 |
| 29th of 300–2 | Road vs home | 1–113th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−75 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–4 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | — | — |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 0–2 CHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.