Milwaukee Bucks at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints36
- Damian LillardAssists7
- Bobby PortisRebounds18
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints39
- Darius GarlandAssists8
- Jarrett AllenRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–116
- Q40.0(00:00) [Bucks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)114–116
- Q40.0AJ Green makes 52-foot three pointer114–116
- Q43.0AJ Green defensive rebound111–116
- Q43.1Donovan Mitchell misses free throw 2 of 2111–116
- Q43.1Jarrett Allen enters the game for Sam Merrill111–116
- Q43.1Isaac Okoro enters the game for Georges Niang111–116
- Q43.1Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2111–116
- Q43.1Pat Connaughton personal take foul111–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:20Darius Garland makes 4-foot driving floating jump shotMIL 106 – 108 CLE · CLE 56% → 73% +17CLE 56% → 73%+17 pts
- Q41:59Damian Lillard makes 12-foot pullup jump shotMIL 108 – 108 CLE · MIL 26% → 44% +19MIL 26% → 44%+19 pts
- Q41:18Damian Lillard makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotMIL 111 – 108 CLE · MIL 45% → 80% +34MIL 45% → 80%+34 pts
- Q41:07Darius Garland makes 6-foot two point shotMIL 111 – 110 CLE · CLE 18% → 41% +23CLE 18% → 41%+23 pts
- Q445.0Darius Garland makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotMIL 111 – 113 CLE · CLE 37% → 82% +45CLE 37% → 82%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -8.5
- ML MIL +290 / CLE -380
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -9.5
- CLE 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 82.7%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- CLE -309
- MIL +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 110.0 – 118.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1570 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −120 | +18 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | MIL crossed 1 time zone and CLE crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +271 Elo | CLE 82.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 77.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 77.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30111.3 | Points scored | 123.12nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.7 | Points allowed | 108.46th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.3 | Margin | +14.73rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30108.7 | Offense rating | 120.23rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 105.95th of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.2 | Pace | 102.411th of 30 |
| 25th of 301–3 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−120 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–5 | 7–0 |
| Last 10 | 1–5 | 7–0 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 5–0 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 2–3 CLE in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.