Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Gradey DickPoints32
- Davion MitchellAssists8
- Bruno FernandoRebounds13
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints23
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists7
- Bobby PortisRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game85–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter85–99
- Q40.0Bucks offensive team rebound85–99
- Q42.1Chris Livingston misses layup85–99
- Q47.0Tyler Smith defensive rebound85–99
- Q48.1Stanley Umude blocks Bruno Fernando's two point shot85–99
- Q417.1AJ Johnson lost ball turnover (Jonathan Mogbo steals)85–99
- Q427.0Bruno Fernando makes two point shot85–99
- Q429.1Bruno Fernando offensive rebound83–99
- Q432.1Bruno Fernando misses layup83–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:43Ochai Agbaji makes 22-foot three point shot (Davion Mitchell assists)TOR 54 – 54 MIL · TOR 24% → 32% +8TOR 24% → 32%+8 pts
- Q39:16Taurean Prince makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)TOR 54 – 57 MIL · MIL 68% → 76% +8MIL 68% → 76%+8 pts
- Q37:30Ryan Rollins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)TOR 56 – 62 MIL · MIL 75% → 82% +7MIL 75% → 82%+7 pts
- Q35:54Chris Boucher makes 26-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)TOR 59 – 65 MIL · TOR 12% → 18% +6TOR 12% → 18%+6 pts
- Q35:28AJ Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brook Lopez assists)TOR 59 – 68 MIL · MIL 83% → 88% +6MIL 83% → 88%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -8.5
- ML TOR +290 / MIL -380
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -4
- MIL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 64.9%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- MIL -309
- TOR +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 108.5 – 117.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1385 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −30 | −66 | TOR: Missing Immanuel Quickley −19 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | TOR crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +107 Elo | MIL 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 77.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 76.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 110.619th of 30 |
| 30th of 30122.7 | Points allowed | 115.720th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−7.5 | Margin | −5.123rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30110.4 | Offense rating | 110.120th of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.6 | Defense rating | 115.124th of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.4 | Pace | 100.616th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–6 | Road vs home | 1–324th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−30 Elo- Immanuel Quickley left elbow−19 Elo
Bucks
−66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–3 | 3–7 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | — | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–1 MIL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.