Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints31
- Jayson TatumAssists6
- Jayson TatumRebounds12
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints43
- Damian LillardAssists6
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–107
- Q413.0Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2113–107
- Q413.0Bucks offensive team rebound113–106
- Q413.0Giannis Antetokounmpo misses free throw 1 of 2113–106
- Q413.0Al Horford shooting foul113–106
- Q416.1Bucks Full timeout113–106
- Q416.1Jayson Tatum makes free throw 2 of 2113–106
- Q416.1Jayson Tatum makes free throw 1 of 2112–106
- Q416.1Giannis Antetokounmpo personal foul111–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:40Pat Connaughton makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)BOS 92 – 91 MIL · MIL 27% → 39% +13MIL 27% → 39%+13 pts
- Q44:59Jayson Tatum makes 27-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)BOS 101 – 97 MIL · BOS 61% → 78% +17BOS 61% → 78%+17 pts
- Q43:37Derrick White makes 30-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 104 – 99 MIL · BOS 68% → 85% +17BOS 68% → 85%+17 pts
- Q42:36AJ Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brook Lopez assists)BOS 104 – 102 MIL · MIL 12% → 30% +18MIL 12% → 30%+18 pts
- Q42:06Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)BOS 107 – 102 MIL · BOS 72% → 91% +19BOS 72% → 91%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -5.5
- ML BOS -195 / MIL +165
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -5
- BOS 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 69.2%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -175
- MIL +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 117.5 – 112.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1644 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +9 | +4 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +141 Elo | BOS 69.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 67.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30120.9 | Points scored | 111.020th of 30 |
| 11th of 30109.9 | Points allowed | 116.021st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+11.0 | Margin | −5.022nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.4 | Offense rating | 110.418th of 30 |
| 4th of 30106.7 | Defense rating | 115.325th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.7 | Pace | 100.716th of 30 |
| 3rd of 305–1 | Road vs home | 1–223rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–5 | 3–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–6 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | — | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–6 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–2 MIL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.