Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints27
- Stephen CurryAssists9
- Kevon LooneyRebounds10
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints32
- Jrue HolidayAssists8
- Jrue HolidayRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–112
- Q40.0Celtics offensive team rebound118–112
- Q40.0Payton Pritchard misses 49-foot three point pullup jump shot118–112
- Q42.1Kyle Anderson makes free throw 2 of 2118–112
- Q42.1Kyle Anderson makes free throw 1 of 2117–112
- Q42.1Payton Pritchard personal foul116–112
- Q43.1Kyle Anderson defensive rebound116–112
- Q44.1Jayson Tatum misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot116–112
- Q411.0Draymond Green makes free throw 2 of 2116–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:56Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three pointerGS 96 – 97 BOS · GS 21% → 37% +16GS 21% → 37%+16 pts
- Q43:06Buddy Hield makes two point shot (Stephen Curry assists)GS 102 – 99 BOS · GS 53% → 69% +16GS 53% → 69%+16 pts
- Q41:49Kevon Looney makes two point shotGS 106 – 102 BOS · GS 67% → 83% +17GS 67% → 83%+17 pts
- Q41:36Neemias Queta makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Jrue Holiday assists)GS 106 – 104 BOS · BOS 15% → 32% +17BOS 15% → 32%+17 pts
- Q41:13Kevon Looney makes two point shotGS 108 – 104 BOS · GS 72% → 89% +17GS 72% → 89%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -6.5
- ML GS +215 / BOS -260
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -1.5
- BOS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 55.1%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- BOS -228
- GS +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 111.0 – 117.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1599 | 1650 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +32 | −20 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Missing Jaylen Brown −27 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +35 Elo | BOS 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 67.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 66.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30121.6 | Points scored | 123.61st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.3 | Points allowed | 109.611th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+17.3 | Margin | +14.03rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 119.91st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30100.8 | Defense rating | 106.33rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.7 | Pace | 101.713th of 30 |
| 1st of 304–0 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−20 Elo- Jaylen Brown strained left hip flexor−27 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–1 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 6–1 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | — |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 3–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 1–1 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.