Golden State Warriors at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints24
- Stephen CurryAssists6
- Kevon LooneyRebounds10
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints24
- Jonas ValanciunasAssists7
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–112
- Q422.1Kyle Anderson defensive rebound125–112
- Q426.1Kyshawn George misses 29-foot three point jumper125–112
- Q430.1Kyle Anderson makes free throw 2 of 2125–112
- Q430.1Pat Spencer enters the game for Buddy Hield124–112
- Q430.1Warriors offensive team rebound124–112
- Q430.1Kyle Anderson misses free throw 1 of 2124–112
- Q430.1Bilal Coulibaly personal take foul124–112
- Q433.1Kyle Anderson offensive rebound124–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:55Kyshawn George makes 30-foot three point shotGS 98 – 90 WSH · WSH 5% → 9% +4WSH 5% → 9%+4 pts
- Q49:12Kyshawn George makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Carlton Carrington assists)GS 101 – 93 WSH · WSH 4% → 9% +4WSH 4% → 9%+4 pts
- Q48:28Carlton Carrington makes driving layupGS 101 – 95 WSH · WSH 8% → 13% +5WSH 8% → 13%+5 pts
- Q48:12Jonathan Kuminga makes 11-foot pullup jump shotGS 103 – 96 WSH · GS 84% → 90% +5GS 84% → 90%+5 pts
- Q46:50Lindy Waters III makes 25-foot three point jumper (Buddy Hield assists)GS 106 – 96 WSH · GS 91% → 96% +5GS 91% → 96%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- GS -10.5
- ML GS -650 / WSH +425
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -8.5
- GS 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- GS: Elo 79.2%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- GS -455
- WSH +455 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 122.0 – 111.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1595 | 1377 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +24 | −39 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Missing Marvin Bagley III −7 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | GS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | GS +232 Elo | GS 79.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 76.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 77.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 82.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30121.0 | Points scored | 114.015th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.0 | Points allowed | 122.829th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+18.0 | Margin | −8.828th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.0 | Offense rating | 107.122nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3099.6 | Defense rating | 115.426th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.3 | Pace | 106.32nd of 30 |
| 1st of 303–0 | Road vs home | 1–220th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−39 Elo- Marvin Bagley III non-covid illness−7 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–1 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–1 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | — |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 2–0 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.