Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints31
- Ben SimmonsAssists8
- Ziaire WilliamsRebounds12
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints33
- Jayson TatumAssists6
- Al HorfordRebounds10
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game104–108
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime104–108
- OT0.0Nets offensive team rebound104–108
- OT0.0Dennis Schroder misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot104–108
- OT4.1Dorian Finney-Smith defensive rebound104–108
- OT4.1Derrick White misses free throw 2 of 2104–108
- OT4.1Derrick White makes free throw 1 of 2104–108
- OT4.1Dorian Finney-Smith personal take foul104–107
- OT8.1Dorian Finney-Smith makes 3-foot layup (Cameron Johnson assists)104–107
- OT10.1Jayson Tatum personal take foul102–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:00Dennis Schroder makes 25-foot three pointerBKN 91 – 89 BOS · BKN 32% → 56% +24BKN 32% → 56%+24 pts
- Q42:06Sam Hauser makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BKN 91 – 92 BOS · BOS 39% → 68% +29BOS 39% → 68%+29 pts
- Q431.1Jayson Tatum makes 1-foot dunk (Jrue Holiday assists)BKN 92 – 94 BOS · BOS 54% → 87% +32BOS 54% → 87%+32 pts
- Q47.1Cameron Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2BKN 94 – 94 BOS · BKN 14% → 48% +34BKN 14% → 48%+34 pts
- OT1:56Al Horford makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BKN 100 – 103 BOS · BOS 58% → 84% +26BOS 58% → 84%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -13.5
- ML BKN +550 / BOS -800
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -8
- BOS 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 78.2%, market 85.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -578
- BKN +578 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 103.5 – 117.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1642 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −41 | −21 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Missing Jaylen Brown −31, Luke Kornet −6 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +222 Elo | BOS 78.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 85.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 84.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 85.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30113.5 | Points scored | 122.32nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.8 | Points allowed | 110.610th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +11.84th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 119.32nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 107.86th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.2 | Pace | 101.215th of 30 |
| 19th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 2–18th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−21 Elo- Jaylen Brown hip flexor injury−31 Elo
- Luke Kornet right hamstring−6 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–2 | 5–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–2 | 5–4 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 5–4 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | — |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 0–4 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.