Memphis Grizzlies at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cameron JohnsonPoints20
- Dennis SchroderAssists6
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–106
- Q40.1
Grizzlies offensive team rebound104–106 - Q40.1Santi Aldama misses 28-foot three point shot104–106
- Q44.0Santi Aldama enters the game for Scotty Pippen Jr.104–106
- Q44.0Jalen Wilson enters the game for Cam Thomas104–106
- Q44.0Grizzlies Full timeout104–106
- Q44.0shot clock turnover104–106
- Q44.0Nets offensive team rebound104–106
- Q45.1Jaren Jackson Jr. blocks Cameron Johnson 's 12-foot pullup jump shot104–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:31Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)MEM 97 – 96 BKN · MEM 38% → 61% +23MEM 38% → 61%+23 pts
- Q42:59Dennis Schroder makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dorian Finney-Smith assists)MEM 97 – 99 BKN · BKN 39% → 63% +25BKN 39% → 63%+25 pts
- Q42:20Nic Claxton makes two point shot (Dennis Schroder assists)MEM 99 – 101 BKN · BKN 47% → 66% +18BKN 47% → 66%+18 pts
- Q41:30Zach Edey makes layup (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)MEM 101 – 101 BKN · MEM 30% → 52% +23MEM 30% → 52%+23 pts
- Q41:13Dorian Finney-Smith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cam Thomas assists)MEM 101 – 104 BKN · BKN 48% → 82% +34BKN 48% → 82%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -4.5
- ML MEM -190 / BKN +160
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -2
- MEM 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- MEM: Elo 58.2%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- MEM -170
- BKN +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 114.0 – 109.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1433 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +47 | −42 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +57 Elo | MEM 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 67.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 66.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 114.613th of 30 |
| 20th of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 115.117th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.7 | Margin | −0.614th of 30 |
| 6th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 112.97th of 30 |
| 14th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 113.520th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.2 | Pace | 99.925th of 30 |
| 8th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 2–212th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–4 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 1–2 BKN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.