Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints24
- Damian LillardAssists6
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds12
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints32
- Jalen BrunsonAssists9
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–116
- Q42.1shot clock turnover94–116
- Q425.1Ariel Hukporti defensive rebound94–116
- Q428.0Stanley Umude misses 25-foot three point jumper94–116
- Q429.1Liam Robbins offensive rebound94–116
- Q432.1Stanley Umude misses 25-foot three point jumper94–116
- Q438.1Stanley Umude defensive rebound94–116
- Q441.1Pacome Dadiet misses 23-foot three point jumper94–116
- Q451.1Tyler Smith makes 25-foot three point jumper94–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:49Karl-Anthony Towns makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)MIL 0 – 3 NY · NY 69% → 74% +5NY 69% → 74%+5 pts
- Q110:17Karl-Anthony Towns makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)MIL 2 – 6 NY · NY 71% → 76% +5NY 71% → 76%+5 pts
- Q110:04Andre Jackson Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 5 – 6 NY · MIL 24% → 29% +5MIL 24% → 29%+5 pts
- Q28:59Tyler Kolek makes 22-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)MIL 31 – 41 NY · NY 80% → 85% +5NY 80% → 85%+5 pts
- Q27:49OG Anunoby makes 26-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)MIL 33 – 44 NY · NY 82% → 87% +5NY 82% → 87%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- NY -6.5
- ML MIL +210 / NY -260
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -5
- NY 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- NY: Elo 69.4%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- NY -224
- MIL +224 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 108.5 – 115.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +18 | +10 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +143 Elo | NY 69.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 65.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30113.1 | Points scored | 113.319th of 30 |
| 21st of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 110.712th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−2.9 | Margin | +2.611th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 117.24th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.3 | Defense rating | 114.622nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.5 | Pace | 96.630th of 30 |
| 25th of 301–4 | Road vs home | 1–117th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–5 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 3–2 NY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.