Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints18
- Davion MitchellAssists5
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds10
Lakers- Austin ReavesPoints27
- LeBron JamesAssists16
- LeBron JamesRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–123
- Q416.1Max Christie defensive rebound103–123
- Q418.1Jamal Shead misses driving layup103–123
- Q431.0Max Christie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dalton Knecht assists)103–123
- Q446.1Jonathan Mogbo makes free throw 1 of 1103–120
- Q446.1Bronny James shooting foul102–120
- Q446.1Jonathan Mogbo makes 2-foot two point shot102–120
- Q41:02Jonathan Mogbo defensive rebound100–120
- Q41:04Gabe Vincent misses 22-foot step back jumpshot100–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:20Immanuel Quickley makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jakob Poeltl assists)TOR 64 – 55 LAL · TOR 46% → 55% +9TOR 46% → 55%+9 pts
- Q37:58Anthony Davis makes 27-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)TOR 68 – 63 LAL · LAL 45% → 55% +10LAL 45% → 55%+10 pts
- Q36:52Ochai Agbaji makes 25-foot three point shot (Gradey Dick assists)TOR 73 – 65 LAL · TOR 46% → 56% +10TOR 46% → 56%+10 pts
- Q36:38Austin Reaves makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Davis assists)TOR 73 – 68 LAL · LAL 44% → 54% +10LAL 44% → 54%+10 pts
- Q32:14Dalton Knecht makes three point jumper (LeBron James assists)TOR 77 – 79 LAL · LAL 64% → 74% +10LAL 64% → 74%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -10.5
- ML TOR +360 / LAL -500
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -7.5
- LAL 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- LAL: Elo 76.4%, market 79.3%
- Fair odds
- LAL -383
- TOR +383 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 113.0 – 123.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1392 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −5 | +1 | TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +204 Elo | LAL 76.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 80.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 80.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 79.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 115.910th of 30 |
| 29th of 30122.7 | Points allowed | 118.424th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.2 | Margin | −2.619th of 30 |
| 17th of 30110.5 | Offense rating | 112.612th of 30 |
| 28th of 30116.4 | Defense rating | 115.122nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.1 | Pace | 103.18th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–5 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–2 | 5–4 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–4 |
| Favorite | — | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–3 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 0–3 LAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.